Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice.
Nature communications 14:1 (2023) 8286
Abstract:
Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014-2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8-16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = -0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability.Predictability of Indian Ocean precipitation and its North Atlantic teleconnections during early winter
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Springer Nature 6:1 (2023) 17
Separating the Indian and Pacific Ocean Impacts on the Euro-Atlantic Response to ENSO and Its Transition from Early to Late Winter
Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society 34:4 (2021) 1531-1548
Tropical Indian Ocean Mediates ENSO Influence Over Central Southwest Asia During the Wet Season
Geophysical Research Letters American Geophysical Union (AGU) 47:18 (2020)
SPEEDY-NEMO: performance and applications of a fully-coupled intermediate-complexity climate model
(2024)