Climate dynamics

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A weather feature perspective on jet dynamics

(2026)

Authors:

Thomas Spengler, Clemens Spensberger, Kjersti Konstali, Henrik Auestad, Andrea Marcheggiani, Orli Lachmy

Abstract:

When decomposing the atmospheric flow into a basic state and perturbations, the perturbations are generally interpreted as the contribution from chaotic non-linear weather. We explore the link between day-to-day weather and the climatological zonal mean perspective on zonal momentum in more detail by systematically linking eddy momentum fluxes to weather events. Specifically, we first decompose the full momentum flux divergence into contributions from mean flow and perturbations both in the time and zonal direction as well as their combinations, and then systematically relate synoptic jets, cyclones, and Rossby wave breaking events to the instantaneous momentum fluxes. We thus construct a step-by-step link between the time-zonal mean perspective on momentum flux convergence and the synoptic perspective.With this approach, we show that both the time and zonal averaging are a residual of a large compensation of momentum flux convergence and divergence. In both dimensions, the mean must be regarded as a residual that is at least an order of magnitude smaller than the original signal. Further, a large fraction of eddy momentum flux convergence and divergence occurs in association with weather features, with synoptic jets alone accounting for 60-80% of the convergence from the subtropics throughout the mid-latitudes. Rossby wave breaking, on the other hand, only features less than 30% of the momentum flux convergence in the midlatitudes.Finally, the attribution of the full-field momentum flux convergence is nearly indistinguishable from the attribution of eddy-momentum flux convergence, irrespective of whether the eddies are defined as perturbations in time, zonal direction, or the combination of both. The effect of stationary waves to the momentum fluxes is thus implicitly included in the selected transient weather events.
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Latent heating contribution to storm intensification across seasons and climates - A potential vorticity approach

(2026)

Authors:

Abel Shibu, Henrik Auestad, Paulo Ceppi, Tim Woollings

Abstract:

Extratropical cyclones are expected to be more diabatically driven in a warmer world, in line with the 6-7% increase in precipitable water per degree of global-mean surface temperature increase. This leads to a preferential strengthening of the most intense cyclones in a warmer climate as a result of increased latent heating (LH), accompanied by a decrease in the strength of weaker cyclones. In this study, using data from new CESM model experiments, and employing a storm-centric potential vorticity (PV) budget, we estimate the contribution of LH to storm intensification across height and storm lifecycle. We use an objective algorithm to track the cyclones, and a suitable storm-compositing method to compute the spatial and temporal patterns of PV generated from diabatic and adiabatic processes. To isolate the intensification of storms due to PV generation from other processes like storm propagation, we develop a novel storm-averaging methodology.  Using this methodology, we investigate how the magnitude and pattern of PV produced from LH are modified when the sea surface temperature is uniformly increased by 4K. Focusing on the strongest cyclones in the southern hemisphere, we show that the increase in low-level PV generated in cyclones in the warmer model run can be almost entirely attributed to changes in the strength and pattern of LH. By also comparing winter and summer cyclones in our model runs, we obtain a consistent pattern of how the LH contribution to cyclone intensification changes from a cooler to a warmer environment. Finally, we show that our methodology also works well for cyclones in reanalysis data (MERRA2). Given the socio-economic impacts of severe storms, this study provides valuable insights into the processes that govern cyclone intensification, and how they are expected to change in a warmer world. We also quantify the increase in cyclone strength with warming, which can support policymakers in anticipating and mitigating the effects of these events.
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The latent heating feedback on the midlatitude circulation in a warming world

(2026)

Authors:

Henrik Auestad, Abel Shibu, Paulo Ceppi, Tim Woollings

Abstract:

Midlatitude storms transport warm and moist air poleward and upward, releasing latent heat. Latent heating is thus organized by thecirculation but then modifies temperature gradients and winds, constituting a nonlinear feedback. We define the latent heating feedbackas the effects that arise from latent heating being coupled with the circulation. Because of its nonlinearity, the climatic effects of thisfeedback are difficult to isolate and remain poorly understood.By decoupling latent heating from the circulation in an atmospheric general circulation model, we show that the latent heating feedbackenhances storm track eddy diffusivity, modifying eddy heat fluxes beyond changes in mean baroclinicity. Simultaneously, tracked stormsoccur at lower latitudes, intensify more, and propagate further poleward, while the subtropical jet strengthens as coupled latent heatingpreserves lower latitude baroclinicity. The feedback response supports the idea that diabatic effects cause the “too zonal, tooequatorward” storm track biases in climate models.Finally, we extend the analysis to climate change experiments where we isolate the contribution from the latent heating feedback onstorm intensity and eddy kinetic energy as the world warms. The feedback is most important in summer where it accounts for most of thechanges in eddy kinetic energy. In winter, the feedback is constrained. Isolating the latent heatingfeedback helps to quantify how storminess changes as the atmosphere warms, which climate models currently struggle with.
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Revisiting the surface impacts of the QBO in the Large Ensemble Single Forcing MIP simulations: are teleconnections still too weak?

(2026)

Authors:

Chaim I Garfinkel, David Avisar, Scott M Osprey, Doug Smith, Jian Rao, Jonathon S Wright
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Supplementary material to "Revisiting the surface impacts of the QBO in the Large Ensemble Single Forcing MIP simulations: are teleconnections still too weak?"

(2026)

Authors:

Chaim I Garfinkel, David Avisar, Scott M Osprey, Doug Smith, Jian Rao, Jonathon S Wright
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