The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society (2024)
Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts
Environmental Research: Climate IOP Publishing (2024)
Abstract:
North-West Europe hottest days are warming twice as fast as mean summer days
Geophysical Research Letters American Geophysical Union 50:10 (2023) e2023GL102757
Abstract:
Europe has seen a rapid increase in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes in recent decades. In this study it is shown, using ERA5 reanalysis data 1960–2021, that the hottest summer days in North-West Europe are warming approximately twice as fast as mean summer days. Moreover, this pattern stands out as relatively unusual across the Northern Hemisphere. It is also shown that comprehensive climate models fail to capture this difference in trends. A hypothesis is suggested to explain the differential rate of warming between the mean and hottest days, namely that the hottest days are often linked to warm advection from Iberia and North Africa, areas that are warming faster than North-West Europe. This hypothesis can account for about 25% of the difference between ERA5 and a climate model ensemble and hence further research is needed to understand the drivers of the differing trends in mean and extreme temperature.The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts
Atmospheric Science Letters Wiley 25:1 (2023) e1190
Abstract:
This study assesses the ability of six European seasonal forecast models to simulate the observed teleconnection between ENSO and tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic. While the models generally capture the basin-wide observed link, its magnitude is overestimated in all forecast models compared to reanalysis. Furthermore, the ENSO-TC relationship in the Caribbean is poorly simulated. It is shown that incorrect forecasting of wind shear appears to affect the representation of the teleconnection in some models, however it is not a completely sufficient explanation for the overestimation of the link.A Generative Deep Learning Approach to Stochastic Downscaling of Precipitation Forecasts
(2022)