Simulation-based inference for AGN jet population modelling: Towards more robust comparisons of black hole jet speeds

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1515

Authors:

Clara Lilje, James H Matthews, Rob Fender

Abstract:

Abstract We present the most complete modelling of the MOJAVE 1.5 Jansky Quarter Century active galactic nuclei (AGN) jet population, using likelihood-free simulation-based inference. Due to the complex impact of a flux-limit on observed AGN data sets, careful modelling of the parent population is required. In particular, when observing and fitting to multiple data distributions likelihoods become non-intuitive. Parameter degeneracies further complicate the problem and make it suitable for likelihood-free, simulation-based inference. This method relies on a normalising flow learning the likelihood surface or posteriors directly. We extensively validate the flow to show that previous parameter estimates for the AGN jet speed distributions underestimated parameter errors significantly and do not capture the non-gaussianity of the parameter posteriors. The new results enable a better statistical comparison to other AGN population studies, but also a more accurate comparison of supermassive black hole jets with their lower mass counterparts, X-ray binaries (XRB). We find that the AGN follow a Lorentz factor distribution of the shape N(Γ)∝Γb with $b= -1.32_{-0.19}^{+0.20}$. This slope is consistent with the XRB Lorentz factor distribution at 2σ. Simulation-based inference as a method is generally well-suited to many astrophysical problems, and this paper shows the convenient applicability of this methodology to parent population studies of jetted AGN with multiple observables specifically.

Radio flares and X-ray hardening embedded in the long soft state of 4U 1543–475

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1470

Authors:

Zuobin Zhang, Rob Fender, Jiachen Jiang, Payaswini Saikia, David M Russell, Andrew Hughes, Honghui Liu, Francesco Carotenuto, James F Steiner, Fraser J Cowie, John A Tomsick, Cosimo Bambi, Yimin Huang, Xian Zhang, Wenfei Yu, Yuexin Zhang, Rittick Roy

Abstract:

Abstract We present a comprehensive multi-wavelength study of the black hole X-ray binary 4U 1543–475 during its 2021 outburst, focusing on radio flaring episodes that are commonly interpreted as signatures of episodic jet production and are embedded within states when the X-ray emission was dominated by an accretion disk component. The radio monitoring reveals at least two discrete flares that coincide with periods of enhanced Comptonized X-ray emission. Broadband spectral modelling shows a significant decrease in the reflection-to-disk flux ratio (by a factor of ~3 − 4) during these episodes, consistent with a temporary change in the geometry of the inner accretion flow, although the data do not allow the causal sequence to be firmly established. Optical photometry exhibits variability that broadly tracks the reflection fraction, consistent with changes in the illuminating component. The accompanying spectral hardening indicates that the radio flares were associated with short-lived excursions toward a ”harder” state, departing from the soft state. X-ray timing analysis suggests that the radio flares may be associated with changes in the fractional rms variability; however, no consistent or unified pattern can be firmly established across different events. These results provide a multi-wavelength observational example of radio flaring activity in a black hole binary and highlight the complex interplay between accretion flow geometry, coronal emission, and jet-related phenomena.

A Real-Time Jet Laboratory in Swift J1727.8-1613

Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia Cambridge University Press (CUP) (2026) 1-28

Authors:

Callan M Wood, James CA Miller-Jones, Arash Bahramian, Steven J Tingay, Sara E Motta, Hongmin Cao, Thomas D Russell, Francesco Carotenuto, Pikky Atri, Diego Altamirano, Alexandra J Tetarenko, Rob Fender, Elmar Körding, Dipankar Maitra, Sera Markoff, David M Russell, Gregory R Sivakoff, Roberto Soria, Valeriu Tudose

Abstract:

Abstract Multi-wavelength observations of low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) during bright outbursts reveal many details about the coupling of their inflows and outflows. However, only high angular resolution radio observations are able to resolve and track the motion and variability of individual jet ejecta. We present the results of our intensive VLBI campaign on the black-hole low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) Swift J1727.8-1613 during its 2023-2024 outburst. We observed the repeated quenching and re-establishment of the highly-extended continuous core jet during several transitions between hard-intermediate and soft-intermediate states, and the repeated ejection of transient jets. Using time-dependent visibility model fitting, we tracked the motion of nine discrete jet knots, obtaining some of the most precise measurements of transient jet proper motions and ejection dates in an LMXB. These ejecta were only detectable for a short time with VLBI, and some showed rapid intra-observation flux density variability that was not captured in image reconstructions. For the first time, we use time-dependent visibility modelling to fit a piecewise model for the jet knot flux densities, allowing us to create complex, non-parametric light curves of their intra-observation variability. We observed the launching of multiple ejecta across several state transitions, however, we could not identify a consistent signature of jet ejection in the available X-ray intensity or hardness data. We constrained the intrinsic speeds and bulk Lorentz factors of the jet knots, finding that Swift J1727.8-1613 launched both mildly relativistic (βΓ<1) and highly relativistic (βΓ>2) ejecta throughout its outburst. We used their proper motions to constrain a posterior distribution for the maximum inclination angle of the jet axis, which had 50th, 84th, and 99th percentiles of 40°, 50°, and 66°, respectively. These unique observations of the repeated ejection of transient jets by a single LMXB reveal that fixed parameters such as black-hole mass, black-hole spin, and spin-orbit misalignment do not uniquely determine the varying properties of transient jets, particularly their speeds and Lorentz factors.

Quenching of X-ray emission in little red dots by both Compton-thick gas and high accretion rates

Astronomy & Astrophysics EDP Sciences 712 (2026) A61-A61

Authors:

Albert Sneppen, Darach Watson, James H Matthews, Stuart A Sim

Abstract:

Little red dots (LRDs) are candidate high-redshift supermassive black holes accreting in dense gas. They remain undetected in X-rays. In previous work, we provided the first quantitative models that reproduce the optical and near-infrared spectra of LRDs with the S IROCCO radiative transfer code, thereby constraining the properties of the surrounding gas. Here, we use these constraints to predict the X-ray attenuation produced by dense gas cocoons, and explore its dependence on Balmer-break strength, metallicity, intrinsic X-ray spectral energy distribution, and observed bandpass as a function of redshift. The X-ray constraints are very tight, requiring extinction by a Compton-thick gas column ( N H ∼ 10 25 cm −2 ) with moderate metallicity (0.05-0.1 Z ) and intrinsically weak X-ray emission (the ratio of bolometric to X-ray luminosity is k bol,X ≳ 30), as observed in narrow-line active galactic nuclei with high accretion rates, to make LRDs sufficiently faint to evade detection. Intrinsically bright X-ray emitters as seen in typical broad-line active galactic nuclei would be detected even behind the typical Compton-thick gas columns with modest metallicity that were inferred from the optical spectra. Very low metallicity objects might be detected in X-rays even with low intrinsic X-ray luminosities, suggesting that LRDs are not (currently) chemically pristine.

Discovery of a radio-flaring M dwarf in a commensal transient search of the LADUMA field

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1420

Authors:

Moses Mlangeni, Patrick A Woudt, Paul J Groot, Alex Andersson, Zwidofhela N Khangale, Francesco Cavallaro, Steven Bloemen, Paul Vreeswijk, David AH Buckley, Rob P Fender, BW Stappers, DLA Pieterse, R Wijnands, Laura N Driessen

Abstract:

Abstract We report the discovery and characterisation of MKT J032848.4–271904.6, a new radio transient identified in the LADUMA field using SARAO Science Data Processor SDP UHF-band images from approximately one year of MeerKAT observations. Using the Transient Pipeline TraP and advanced filtering techniques, we identified a number of candidate variable radio sources in the field. All but one show variability consistent with refractive interstellar scintillation, leaving MKT J032848.4–271904.6 as the sole source exhibiting intrinsic variability. In addition, MKT J032848.4–271904.6 shows intrinsic variability at 0.816 GHz, with 13 radio detections across 41 epochs and a peak flux density of 1.041 ± 0.043 mJy. We associate this emission with a low-mass M-dwarf star LP 888–63, located 23 pc from the Sun and identified as a companion to the white dwarf binary system LAWD 14 WD 0326–273. LP 888–63 displays active flaring behaviour across the electromagnetic spectrum including multi-band optical data from MeerLICHT. TESS photometry reveals a periodic modulation in the blended light curve of 5.780 ± 0.507 days, consistent with rotational variability of a mid-M dwarf. Archival ESO spectra reveal Hα emission, confirming magnetic activity. These findings highlight the capability of MeerKAT’s SDP imaging and facilities like MeerLICHT for real-time detection and characterisation of stellar transients.