Dr Muhammad Adnan Abid

Abstract:

Abstract. We introduce Saudi Rainfall (SaRa), a gridded historical and near-real-time precipitation (P) product specifically designed for the Arabian Peninsula, one of the most arid, water-stressed, and data-sparse regions on Earth. The product has an hourly 0.1° resolution spanning 1979 to the present and is continuously updated with a latency of less than 2 h. The algorithm underpinning the product involves 18 machine learning model stacks trained for different combinations of satellite and (re)analysis P products along with several static predictors. As a training target, hourly and daily P observations from gauges in Saudi Arabia (n = 113) and globally (n = 14 256) are used. To evaluate the performance of SaRa, we carried out the most comprehensive evaluation of gridded P products in the region to date, using observations from independent gauges (randomly excluded from training) in Saudi Arabia as a reference (n = 119). Among the 20 evaluated P products, our new product, SaRa, consistently ranked first across all evaluation metrics, including the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), correlation, bias, peak bias, wet-day bias, and critical success index. Notably, SaRa achieved a median KGE – a summary statistic combining correlation, bias, and variability – of 0.36, while widely used non-gauge-based products such as CHIRP, ERA5, GSMaP V8, and IMERG-L V07 achieved values of −0.07, 0.21, −0.13, and −0.39, respectively. SaRa also outperformed four gauge-based products such as CHIRPS V2, CPC Unified, IMERG-F V07, and MSWEP V2.8 which had median KGE values of 0.17, −0.03, 0.29, and 0.20, respectively. Our new P product – available at https://www.gloh2o.org/sara (last access: 24 September 2025) – addresses a crucial need in the Arabian Peninsula, providing a robust and reliable dataset to support hydrological modeling, water resource assessments, flood management, and climate research.

Abstract:

Volcanic eruptions are among the strongest climate drivers, yet their regional impacts on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remain poorly constrained. Post-eruption amplified winter cooling in MENA is often attributed to a volcanically forced positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but the concurrent occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) complicates attribution. Furthermore, summer climatic responses, including tropical warming and mid-latitude cooling, remain underexplored. Here, we present a pioneering research using a high-top coupled climate model (MIROC6) to assess volcanic-induced ENSO–NAO interactions and their regional climate impacts. We demonstrate that volcanic-induced NAO variability is the primary driver of post-eruption MENA winter cooling, with El Niño acting as a modulator rather than a fundamental trigger. We further reveal distinct summer climate anomalies, including suppressed precipitation over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These findings underscore the importance of high-top models to resolve stratospheric influences on post-volcanic climate variability.

Abstract:

The North Indian Ocean (NIO), which includes the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS), is frequently impacted by tropical cyclones (TCs). Notably, in November 2020, the simultaneous occurrence of Cyclones Gati in the AS and Nivar in the BoB presented a rare and compelling phenomenon worthy of investigation. This study delves into the underlying mechanisms driving the genesis and intensification of these two Very Severe Cyclonic Storms (VSCS). Key contributing factors include elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP), both crucial for the development and intensification of TCs. Notably, the BoB exhibits higher TCHP values compared to the AS, which facilitated greater intensity for Nivar over Gati. Despite their concurrent formation, the genesis processes of Gati and Nivar were distinct. The early November development of Gati in the AS was modulated by the Rossby wave and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Subsequently, the eastward propagation of the MJO triggered the formation of Cyclone Nivar in the BoB, enhancing convective activity from the AS and coinciding with the arrival of a downward-propagating Rossby wave. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the simultaneous formation of Gati and Nivar, contributing novel insights into the complex interactions between oceanic and atmospheric phenomena. Such insights are vital for enhancing the predictive capabilities for destructive weather events in the NIO.

Abstract:

While it is widely believed that the intense rainfall in summer 2022 over Pakistan was substantially exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change1, 2, climate models struggled to confirm this3, 4. Using a high-resolution operational seasonal forecasting system that successfully predicted the extreme wet conditions, we perform counterfactual experiments simulating pre-industrial and future conditions. Both experiments also exhibit strong anomalous rainfall, indicating a limited role of CO2-induced forcing. We attribute 10% of the total rainfall to historical increases in CO2 and ocean temperature. However, further increases in the future suggest a weak mean precipitation reduction but with increased variability. By decomposing rainfall and large-scale circulation into CO2 and SST-related signals, we illustrate a tendency for these signals to compensate each other in future scenarios. This suggests that historical CO2 impacts may not reliably predict future responses. Accurately capturing local dynamics is therefore essential for regional climate adaptation planning and for informing loss and damage discussions.