Dr Scott Osprey FRMetS

Abstract:

More frequent heatwaves in Europe are posing considerable risks to human health, infrastructure, and ecosystems. However, the contributions of external forcing factors such as well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols remain to be better quantified. Here, using model outputs from the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP), a recent atmospheric reanalysis and a machine learning method—self-organising maps (SOMs), we attribute European heatwave trends during 1940–2020 to various external forcings. The Europe-averaged heatwave trend during 1940–2020 (0.87 days per decade) is well captured by the multi-model mean (MMM) response with GHGs dominating the trend. The positive heatwave trend in GHGs and ozone is offset by the effects of aerosols during 1940–1979, leading to weak negative heatwave trends. In contrast, the increase in GHGs has driven about half (53 ± 17%; MMM and model-spread) of the strong heatwave trends in 1980–2020 (2.5 days per decade), amplified by the reduction in aerosols (23 ± 15%). This highlights the increasing risk of more frequent heatwaves in Europe if GHG emissions continue to rise without significant mitigation measures. Analysis of atmospheric circulation by SOMs reveals that four major atmospheric circulation patterns, dominated by a blocking high anomaly, are linked to the most spatially-intense European summer heatwaves. A relatively large increase in the occurrence of blocking-like atmospheric circulation has likely exacerbated heatwave trends in Southern and Eastern Europe in 1980–2020. However, this atmospheric circulation trend is much weaker in the model response, and also seems to be outside the internal variability in most of the models. This may partly explain the underestimated heatwave trends in Southern and Eastern Europe. Constraining and further understanding of the thermodynamic and dynamic response in the LESFMIP models is important for attributing and predicting the multi-annual and decadal variability of climate and weather extremes.

Abstract:

The North Atlantic sector has been identified as a region where the 11‐year solar cycle has small but potentially non‐negligible impacts on winter climate, but a debate persists about the robustness of such impacts. This work explores the signatures of the 11‐year solar cycle over the North Atlantic in the ERA5 and 20th Century Reanalysis datasets. The results confirm previous studies with a robust positive boreal winter response in mean‐sea‐level pressure (mslp) in the region of the Azores at lags of three years after solar maximum. The spatial evolution of the response is examined in detail by first decomposing the mslp time series into the dominant modes of North Atlantic winter mslp variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian patterns, before performing a multilinear regression analysis. We find that the maximum 11‐year solar response in the December–January–February (DJF) average does not project directly onto the NAO. However, when the early/late‐winter responses are examined separately, a statistically significant NAO response is seen in late winter (January–February) at lag 0–1 years and a statistically significant NAO response is also seen at lag +3 years in early winter (November–December). These results are consistent with predicted responses from previously proposed top‐down influences from the stratosphere in late winter followed by the re‐emergence of a signal from underlying sea surface temperatures in early winter. However, the NAO response is not the primary contributor to the total DJF response at lag +3 years. A previously unidentified solar‐cycle response in the EA pattern is found in late winter at lag +3 years with larger amplitude than the NAO response. The evolution of the DJF mslp response over the Azores region can thus be understood as a summation of the NAO and EA patterns at lag +3 years.

Abstract:

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of tropical stratospheric variability that modulates global circulation and climate. Although a long-term weakening of QBO amplitude has been observed under global warming, the relative roles of different tropical oceans remain unclear. We perform sensitivity experiments forced by sea surface temperature perturbations over the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, as well as their combined warming, to separate individual and joint effects. Pacific warming produces the strongest weakening and slowest descent of the QBO, whereas Atlantic warming slightly strengthens the amplitude and extends the vertical structure. Indian Ocean warming slightly weakens the amplitude and accelerates the descent. When all three oceans warm simultaneously, the QBO exhibits a weaker amplitude and faster descent, consistent in sign with the combined single-basin responses but with a reduced magnitude owing to diminished zonal and inter-basin SST gradients. Momentum budget analyses further show that basin-dependent competition between equatorial wave forcing and tropical upwelling underlies these contrasting responses.