Beecroft Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology

Abstract:

With a new probabilistic technique for sampling interstellar object (ISO) orbits with high efficiency, we assess the observability of ISOs under a realistic cadence for the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Using the Ōtautahi–Oxford population model, we show that there will be complex on-sky structure in the pattern of direction and velocity revealed by the detected ISO population, with the expected enhanced northern flux complicating efforts to derive population parameters from the LSST’s predominately southern footprint. For reasonable luminosity functions with slopes of 2.5 ≤ qs ≤ 4.0, the most discoverable ISOs have Hr ≃ 14.6−20.7. The slope of the luminosity function of ISOs will be relatively quickly constrained by the characteristics of the LSST detected population, such as the distributions of perihelia, velocity at infinity, and discovery circumstances. Discoveries are evenly split around their perihelion passage and are biased to lower velocities. After their discovery by LSST, it will be rare for ISOs to be visible for less than a month; most will have mr ≤ 23 for months, and the window for spectroscopic characterization could be as long as 2 yr. While these probabilistic assessments are robust against model or spatial density refinements that change the absolute numbers of ISO discoveries, our simulations predict a yield of 6–51 asteroidal ISOs, which is similar to previous works and demonstrates the validity of our new methods.

Abstract:

The past few years have seen the emergence of a wide array of novel techniques for analyzing high-precision data from upcoming galaxy surveys, which aim to extend the statistical analysis of galaxy clustering data beyond the linear regime and the canonical two-point (2pt) statistics. We test and benchmark some of these new techniques in a community data challenge named “Beyond-2pt,” initiated during the Aspen 2022 Summer Program “Large-Scale Structure Cosmology beyond 2-Point Statistics,” whose first round of results we present here. The challenge data set consists of high-precision mock galaxy catalogs for clustering in real space, in redshift space, and on a light cone. Participants in the challenge have developed end-to-end pipelines to analyze mock catalogs and extract unknown (“masked”) cosmological parameters of the underlying ΛCDM models with their methods. The methods represented are density-split clustering, nearest neighbor statistics, BACCO power spectrum emulator, void statistics, LEFTfield field-level inference using effective field theory (EFT), and joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses using both EFT and simulation-based inference. In this work, we review the results of the challenge, focusing on problems solved, lessons learned, and future research needed to perfect the emerging beyond-2pt approaches. The unbiased parameter recovery demonstrated in this challenge by multiple statistics and the associated modeling and inference frameworks supports the credibility of cosmology constraints from these methods. The challenge data set is publicly available, and we welcome future submissions from methods that are not yet represented.

Abstract:

The discovery of the third interstellar object (ISO), 3I/ATLAS (“3I”), provides a rare chance to directly observe a small body from another solar system. Studying its chemistry and dynamics will add to our understanding of how the processes of planetesimal formation and evolution happen across the Milky Way’s disk, and how such objects respond to the Milky Way’s potential. In this Letter, we present a first assessment of 3I in the context of the Ōtautahi–Oxford model, which uses data from Gaia in conjunction with models of protoplanetary disk chemistry and Galactic dynamics to predict the properties of the ISO population. The model shows that both the velocity and radiant of 3I are within the expected range. Its velocity predicts an age of over 7.6 Gyr and a high water mass fraction, which may become observable shortly. We also conclude that it is very unlikely that 3I shares an origin with either of the previous two ISO detections.

Abstract:

The marked power spectrum — a two-point correlation function of a weighted density field — has emerged as a promising tool for extracting cosmological information from the large-scale structure of the Universe. In this work, we present the first comprehensive analytical study of the marked power spectrum's sensitivity to primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) of the non-local type. We extend previous effective field theory frameworks to incorporate PNG, developing a complete theoretical model that we validate against the Quijote simulation suite. Through a systematic Fisher analysis, we compare the constraining power of the marked power spectrum against traditional approaches combining the power spectrum and bispectrum (P+B). We explore different choices of mark parameters to evaluate their impact on parameter constraints, particularly focusing on equilateral and orthogonal PNG as well as neutrino masses. Our analysis shows that while marking up underdense regions yields optimal constraints in the low shot-noise regime, the marked power spectrum's performance for discrete tracers with BOSS-like number densities does not surpass that of P+B analysis at mildly non-linear scales (k ≲ 0.25 h/Mpc). However, the marked approach offers several practical advantages, including simpler estimation procedures and potentially more manageable systematic effects. Our theoretical framework reveals how the marked power spectrum incorporates higher-order correlation information through terms resembling tree-level bispectra and power spectrum convolutions. This work establishes a robust foundation for applying marked statistics to future large-volume surveys.

Abstract:

We present a detailed kinematic study of a sample of 32 massive (9.5 ⩽ log( M * /M ⊙ ) ⩽ 10.9) main sequence star-forming galaxies (MS SFGs) at 4 < z < 6 from the ALMA-CRISTAL programme. The data consist of deep (up to 15 hr observing time per target), high-resolution (∼1 kpc) ALMA observations of [C  II ]158 μm line emission. This dataset allowed us to carry out the first systematic, kiloparsec-scale (kpc-scale) characterisation of the kinematics nature of typical massive SFGs at these epochs. We find that ∼50% of the sample are disk-like, with a number of galaxies located in systems of multiple components. Kinematic modelling reveals these main sequence disks exhibit high-velocity dispersions ( σ 0 ), with a median disk velocity dispersion of ∼70 km s −1 and V rot / σ 0 ∼ 2, which is consistent with dominant gravity driving. The elevated disk dispersions are in line with the predicted evolution based on Toomre theory and the extrapolated trends from z ∼ 0–2.5 MS star-forming disks. The inferred dark matter (DM) mass fraction within the effective radius f DM (< R e ) for the disk systems decreases with the central baryonic mass surface density. This is consistent with the trend reported by kinematic studies at z ≲ 3; roughly half the disks display f DM (< R e )≲ 30%. The CRISTAL sample of massive MS SFGs provides a reference of the kinematics of a representative population and extends the view onto typical galaxies beyond previous kpc-scale studies at z ≲ 3.