Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics

Abstract:

Current understanding of weather, climate and global atmospheric circulation on Mars is incomplete, in particular at altitudes above about 30 km. General circulation models for Mars are similar to those developed for weather and climate forecasting on Earth and require more martian observations to allow testing and model improvements. However, the available measurements of martian atmospheric temperatures, winds, water vapour and airborne dust are generally restricted to the region close to the surface and lack the vertical resolution and global coverage that is necessary to shed light on the dynamics of Mars middle atmosphere at altitudes between 30 and 80 km (ref.7). Here we report high-resolution observations from the Mars Climate Sounder instrument on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. These observations show an intense warming of the middle atmosphere over the south polar region in winter that is at least 10-20 K warmer than predicted by current model simulations. To explain this finding, we suggest that the atmospheric downwelling circulation over the pole, which is part of the equator-to-pole Hadley circulation, may be as much as 50 more vigorous than expected, with consequences for the cycles of water, dust and CO"2 that regulate the present-day climate on Mars. © 2008 Macmillan Publishers Limited.

Abstract:

We present results from a computational study of predictability in fully-developed baroclinically unstable laboratory flows. This behaviour is studied in the Met Office/Oxford Rotating Annulus Laboratory Simulation ĝ€" a model of the classic rotating annulus laboratory experiment with differentially heated cylindrical sidewalls, which is firmly established as an insightful laboratory analogue for certain kinds of atmospheric dynamical behaviour. This work is the first study of "predictability of the first kind" in the annulus experiment. We devise an ensemble prediction scheme using the breeding method to study the predictability of the annulus in the perfect model scenario. This scenario allows one simulation to be defined as the true state, against which all forecasts are measured. We present results from forecasts over a range of quasi-periodic and chaotic annulus flow regimes. A number of statistical and meteorological techniques are used to compare the predictability of these flows: bred vector growth rate and dimension, error variance, "spaghetti plots", probability forecasts, Brier score, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. These techniques gauge both the predictability of the flow and the performance of the ensemble relative to a forecast using a climatological distribution. It is found that in the perfect model scenario, the two quasi-periodic regimes examined may be indefinitely predictable. The two chaotic regimes (structural vacillation and period doubled amplitude vacillation) show a loss of predictability on a timescale of hundreds to thousands of seconds (65ĝ€"280 annulus rotation periods, or 1ĝ€"3 Lyapunov times).