Earth Observation Data Group

Abstract:

Recent years have seen the increasing inclusion of per-retrieval prognostic (predictive) uncertainty estimates within satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data sets, providing users with quantitative tools to assist in the optimal use of these data. Prognostic estimates contrast with diagnostic (i.e. relative to some external truth) ones, which are typically obtained using sensitivity and/or validation analyses. Up to now, however, the quality of these uncertainty estimates has not been routinely assessed. This study presents a review of existing prognostic and diagnostic approaches for quantifying uncertainty in satellite AOD retrievals, and it presents a general framework to evaluate them based on the expected statistical properties of ensembles of estimated uncertainties and actual retrieval errors. It is hoped that this framework will be adopted as a complement to existing AOD validation exercises; it is not restricted to AOD and can in principle be applied to other quantities for which a reference validation data set is available. This framework is then applied to assess the uncertainties provided by several satellite data sets (seven over land, five over water), which draw on methods from the empirical to sensitivity analyses to formal error propagation, at 12 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites. The AERONET sites are divided into those for which it is expected that the techniques will perform well and those for which some complexity about the site may provide a more severe test. Overall, all techniques show some skill in that larger estimated uncertainties are generally associated with larger observed errors, although they are sometimes poorly calibrated (i.e. too small or too large in magnitude). No technique uniformly performs best. For powerful formal uncertainty propagation approaches such as optimal estimation, the results illustrate some of the difficulties in appropriate population of the covariance matrices required by the technique. When the data sets are confronted by a situation strongly counter to the retrieval forward model (e.g. potentially mixed land–water surfaces or aerosol optical properties outside the family of assumptions), some algorithms fail to provide a retrieval, while others do but with a quantitatively unreliable uncertainty estimate. The discussion suggests paths forward for the refinement of these techniques.

Abstract:

Abstract The chemical environments of young planets are assumed to be largely influenced by the impacts of bodies lingering on unstable trajectories after the dissolution of the protoplanetary disk. We explore the chemical consequences of impacts within the context of reducing planetary atmospheres dominated by carbon monoxide, methane, and molecular nitrogen. A terawatt high-power laser was selected in order to simulate the airglow plasma and blast wave surrounding the impactor. The chemical results of these experiments are then applied to a theoretical atmospheric model. The impact simulation results in substantial volume mixing ratios within the reactor of 5% hydrogen cyanide (HCN), 8% acetylene (C2H2), 5% cyanoacetylene (HC3N), and 1% ammonia (NH3). These yields are combined with estimated impact rates for the early Earth to predict surface boundary conditions for an atmospheric model. We show that impacts might have served as sources of energy that would have led to steady-state surface quantities of 0.4% C2H2, 400 ppm HCN, and 40 ppm NH3. We provide simulated transit spectra for an Earth-like exoplanet with this reducing atmosphere during and shortly after eras of intense impacts. We predict that acetylene is as observable as other molecular features on exoplanets with reducing atmospheres that have recently gone through their own “heavy bombardments,” with prominent features at 3.05 and 10.5 μm.