Simulation-based inference for AGN jet population modelling: Towards more robust comparisons of black hole jet speeds
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1515
Abstract:
Abstract We present the most complete modelling of the MOJAVE 1.5 Jansky Quarter Century active galactic nuclei (AGN) jet population, using likelihood-free simulation-based inference. Due to the complex impact of a flux-limit on observed AGN data sets, careful modelling of the parent population is required. In particular, when observing and fitting to multiple data distributions likelihoods become non-intuitive. Parameter degeneracies further complicate the problem and make it suitable for likelihood-free, simulation-based inference. This method relies on a normalising flow learning the likelihood surface or posteriors directly. We extensively validate the flow to show that previous parameter estimates for the AGN jet speed distributions underestimated parameter errors significantly and do not capture the non-gaussianity of the parameter posteriors. The new results enable a better statistical comparison to other AGN population studies, but also a more accurate comparison of supermassive black hole jets with their lower mass counterparts, X-ray binaries (XRB). We find that the AGN follow a Lorentz factor distribution of the shape N(Γ)∝Γb with $b= -1.32_{-0.19}^{+0.20}$. This slope is consistent with the XRB Lorentz factor distribution at 2σ. Simulation-based inference as a method is generally well-suited to many astrophysical problems, and this paper shows the convenient applicability of this methodology to parent population studies of jetted AGN with multiple observables specifically.Quenching of X-ray emission in little red dots by both Compton-thick gas and high accretion rates
Astronomy & Astrophysics EDP Sciences 712 (2026) a61
Abstract:
Little red dots (LRDs) are candidate high-redshift supermassive black holes accreting in dense gas. They remain undetected in X-rays. In previous work, we provided the first quantitative models that reproduce the optical and near-infrared spectra of LRDs with the S IROCCO radiative transfer code, thereby constraining the properties of the surrounding gas. Here, we use these constraints to predict the X-ray attenuation produced by dense gas cocoons, and explore its dependence on Balmer-break strength, metallicity, intrinsic X-ray spectral energy distribution, and observed bandpass as a function of redshift. The X-ray constraints are very tight, requiring extinction by a Compton-thick gas column ( N H ∼ 10 25 cm −2 ) with moderate metallicity (0.05-0.1 Z ⊙ ) and intrinsically weak X-ray emission (the ratio of bolometric to X-ray luminosity is k bol,X ≳ 30), as observed in narrow-line active galactic nuclei with high accretion rates, to make LRDs sufficiently faint to evade detection. Intrinsically bright X-ray emitters as seen in typical broad-line active galactic nuclei would be detected even behind the typical Compton-thick gas columns with modest metallicity that were inferred from the optical spectra. Very low metallicity objects might be detected in X-rays even with low intrinsic X-ray luminosities, suggesting that LRDs are not (currently) chemically pristine.How massive and clumpy must a quasar wind be to create emission line blueshifts?
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1424
Abstract:
Abstract Blue asymmetries (“Blueshifts”) in the C iv 1550Å emission line are common in luminous quasars. If they are formed in winds, how much energy, momentum and mass do those winds transport? We address this question by considering how much mass must be supplied through the line-forming region to maintain a given density and ionization state. Using a combination of 1D analytic and 2D numerical models, we find that for blueshifted C iv lines to form in a wind, the wind must have mass outflow rates of ~50fV times the accretion rate, where fV ≤ 1 is the volume filling factor accounting for clumping. Our results therefore disfavour line formation in a smooth disc wind and point towards one of two scenarios: either the wind is clumpy, with required clumping factors suggestively close to those in hot star winds; alternatively, if the mass is instead swept up from the ambient medium, the wind need not be clumpy and MHD and radiative winds can provide the original source of momentum and energy. The power of the outflow depends on the square of the terminal velocity of the flow, v∞. If the wind is also the BAL outflow, with v∞ ~ 10, 000 km s−1, the wind power is significant and important for feedback. There are various caveats which moderate our conclusions, motivating i) a better theoretical understanding of wind driving and clump formation physics and ii) improved observational constraints on the physical conditions where the lines are formed.How massive and clumpy must a quasar wind be to create emission line blueshifts?
ArXiv 2607.25035 (2026)
Optical outburst evolution of the transient black hole X-ray binary Swift J1727.8−1613: disc response to jet ejections and late-outburst emergence of powerful disc winds
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) 550:4 (2026) stag1175