ThousandWorlds: A benchmark for climate emulation of potentially habitable exoplanets
Machine Learning (cs.LG)
Abstract:
The search for life beyond Earth will depend on detecting faint signatures in the atmospheres of potentially habitable exoplanets. Interpreting those signatures requires understanding the host planet's climate: the same molecule may signal life on one planet and abiotic chemistry on another. Global climate models (GCMs) provide this understanding, but individual runs can require up to millions of core-hours and substantial domain expert time. Machine-learning emulators could remove this bottleneck, but progress has been limited by the absence of a curated, multi-model exoclimate dataset. We introduce ThousandWorlds, an ML-ready benchmark for exoclimate emulation and for the broader regime of low-data, multi-simulator, parameter-to-field regression. The dataset contains approximately 1800 simulations from five GCMs, mapping eight planet parameters to 3D atmospheric fields including temperature, humidity, winds, clouds, and radiation. Three nested subsets define progressively harder challenges: single-simulator regression, multi-simulator regression with complete observations, and multi-simulator regression with structured missingness. We propose two evaluation protocols: one for ranking methods, and one that measures performance relative to the disagreement between GCMs themselves. We evaluate seven baselines spanning simple methods, deep learning, and Gaussian processes. GP-based methods perform best, suggesting that ThousandWorlds exposes a regime where off-the-shelf deep learning does not yet succeed.
The impact of different haze types on the atmospheres and observations of hot Jupiters: 3D simulations of HD 189733b, HD 209458b, and WASP-39b
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 542, Issue 3, pp.1873–1900 (2025)
Abstract:
We present the results from the simulations of the atmospheres of hot-Jupiters HD 189733b, HD 209458b, and WASP-39b, assuming the presence of three different types of haze. Using a 3D general circulation model, the Unified Model, we capture the advection, settling, and radiative impact of Titan-, water-world-, and soot-like haze, with a particle radius of 1.5 nm. We show that the radiative impact of haze leads to drastic changes in the thermal structure and circulation in the atmosphere. We then show that in all our simulations, (1) the super-rotating jet largely determines the day-to-night haze distribution, (2) eddies drive the latitudinal haze distribution, and (3) the divergent and eddy component of the wind control the finer structure of the haze distribution. We further show that the stronger the absorption strength of the haze, the stronger the super-rotating jet, lesser the difference of the day-to-night haze distribution, and larger the transit depth in the synthetic transmission spectrum. We also demonstrate that the presence of such small hazes could result in a stronger haze opacity over the morning terminator in all three planets. This could lead to an observable terminator asymmetry in WASP-39b, with the morning terminator presenting a larger transit depth than the evening terminator. This work suggests that, although it might not be a typical detection feature for hot Jupiters, an observed increase in transit depth over the morning terminator across the ultraviolet and optical wavelength regime could serve as a strong indicator of the presence of haze.
Benchmarking Photolysis Rates: Species for Earth and Exoplanets
Geoscientific Model Development (GMD) in review
Abstract:
Modeling Atmospheric Ion Escape from Kepler-1649 b and c over Time
The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Volume 994, Number 2, L50 (2025)
Abstract:
Rocky planets orbiting M dwarf stars are prime targets for atmospheric characterization, yet their long-term evolution under intense stellar winds and high-energy radiation remains poorly constrained. The Kepler-1649 system, hosting two terrestrial exoplanets orbiting an M5V star, provides a valuable laboratory for studying atmospheric evolution in the extreme environments typical of M dwarf systems. In this Letter, we show that both planets could have retained atmospheres over gigayear timescales. Using a multispecies magnetohydrodynamic model, we simulate atmospheric ion escape driven by stellar winds and extreme-ultraviolet radiation from 0.8 to 4.0 Gyr. The results reveal a clear decline in total ion escape rates with stellar age, as captured by a nonparametric LOWESS regression, with O+ comprising 98.3%–99.9% of the total loss. Escape rates at 4.0 Gyr are 2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than during early epochs. At 0.8 Gyr, planet b exhibits 3.79× higher O+ escape rates than planet c, whereas by 4.0 Gyr its O+ escape rates becomes 39.5× lower. This reversal arises from a transition to sub-magnetosonic star–planet interactions, where the fast magnetosonic Mach number, Mf, falls below unity. Despite substantial early atmospheric erosion, both planets may have retained significant atmospheres, suggesting potential long-term habitability. These findings offer predictive insight into atmospheric retention in the Kepler-1649 system and inform future JWST observations of similar M dwarf terrestrial exoplanets aimed at refining habitability assessments.
Transformational astrophysics and exoplanet science with Habitable Worlds Observatory's High Resolution Imager
White paper submitted to the UK Space Agency's initiative "UK Space Frontiers 2035
Abstract:
Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will be NASA’s flagship space telescope of the 2040s, designed to search for life on other planets and to transform broad areas of astrophysics. NASA are
seeking international partners, and the UK is well-placed to lead the design and construction of its
imaging camera — which is likely to produce the mission’s most visible public impact. Early participation in the mission would return investment to UK industry, and bring generational leadership for
the UK in space science, space technology, and astrophysics.
seeking international partners, and the UK is well-placed to lead the design and construction of its
imaging camera — which is likely to produce the mission’s most visible public impact. Early participation in the mission would return investment to UK industry, and bring generational leadership for
the UK in space science, space technology, and astrophysics.