AOPP Seminar - Anticipating extreme events for the energy sector. How can meteorologists help?

As energy systems across the world push towards their net-zero targets they are becoming increasingly susceptible to weather and climate variability. This is due to both the increasing dependence on renewable energy (wind, solar and hydropower) and the electrification of heating (and therefore increased temperature dependence of electricity demand). New types of 'extreme weather' are becoming important driven by times when demand is high, and renewable supply is low and it is very important we can anticipate these events to maintain a secure and reliable energy supply. In this talk we will first discuss what these new types of extreme weather events look like, and then explore their sub-seasonal predictability out to 4-weeks ahead by comparing traditional forecasting methods to those using weather regimes, or a new pattern-based forecasting technique called 'targeted circulation types'. We show usefulness of each method and explore opportunities for conditional predictability through windows of opportunity.