Reconstruction of last millennium sea surface temperature on 1° grid using a random forest algorithm
Global and Planetary Change 258 (2026) 105279
Abstract:
Climate models and theoretical evidence show that the ocean drives climate from sub-decadal to centennial timescales through a variety of processes and their interactions. The range of direct climate observations, however, is too short to understand the exact role of the ocean in shaping observed and future climate variability on top of anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we use a large set of paleoclimate records combined with a random forest algorithm to reconstruct a gridded dataset of sea surface temperatures since 850 C.E. to provide a better framework for the study of ocean surface variability. In line with modeling and paleodata studies, our reconstruction suggests that natural climate forcings have importantly influenced the last millennium climate variability. Our reconstruction also suggests that North Atlantic SST multidecadal variability influences Pacific SST on decadal timescales. However, the latter result is shown to be strongly dependent on background climate conditions. This new reconstruction offers a useful resource for testing the capabilities of climate models to reproduce the linkages between Atlantic and Pacific as well as the response to external forcings.
A generative likelihood framework for high-resolution climate model evaluation
Environmental Data Science Cambridge University Press (CUP) 5 (2026)
Abstract:
Abstract Next-generation high-resolution (km-scale) climate models promise unprecedented accuracy in climate projections, but realizing their potential requires robust methods to quantify how well simulations align with real-world observations. Average-based metrics conventionally used for climate model evaluation ignore the physics encoded in the fine-scale structures of km-scale simulations. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel, statistically principled evaluation methodology based on the likelihood function of a generative image model. Our method provides a continuous similarity metric derived from the likelihood distribution of observation and simulation snapshots, which can redefine the evaluation, intercomparison, and parameter tuning of high-resolution climate models. We demonstrate the applicability and interpretability of this method by evaluating convective clouds simulated by two state-of-the-art global km-scale models, using their outgoing infrared radiation fields. This work establishes a scalable pathway toward observation-based evaluation of next-generation climate simulations.Environmental Influences on Deep Convective Upscale Growth Rate in Central Argentina From a Convection‐Permitting Simulation
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres American Geophysical Union 131:1 (2025) e2025JD044251
Abstract:
Plain Language Summary: Understanding the environments that support spatial growth of storms is crucial for predicting their impacts. This study uses a 6.5‐month‐long high‐resolution model simulation to examine the environments of simulated storm systems separated based on their rate of spatial growth. Results show that environments with a faster growth rate have greater moisture and instability. While vertical wind shear, defined as the change in wind speed and/or direction with height, is a well‐known factor in storm organization, its magnitude does not vary strongly with growth rate when shear is averaged over a large area, likely due to the large spread in values present. However, the direction of wind shear is likely an important factor in the rate of growth, and faster spatial growth is found for storms growing near the mountains when a favorable shear direction (parallel to the mountain range) is present. A low‐level jet, an area of stronger wind speeds elevated off of the surface, is found more frequently in environments with a faster growth rate and is likely an important mechanism that facilitates differences in thermodynamics and wind shear.
New insights into decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic revealed by data-driven dynamical models
Earth System Dynamics (2025)
Abstract:
The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are the dominant modes of oceanic and atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic, respectively, and are key sources of predictability from seasonal to decadal timescales. However, the physical processes and feedback mechanisms linking the AMV and NAO, and the role of diabatic processes in these feedbacks, remain debated. We present a data-driven dynamical modelling framework which captures coupled decadal variability in AMV, NAO, and North Atlantic precipitation. Applying equation discovery methods to observational data, we identify low-order models consisting of three coupled ordinary differential equations. These models reproduce observed decadal variability and show robust out-of-sample predictive skill on multi-annual to decadal lead times. The resulting model dynamics include a distinct quasi-periodic 20-year oscillation consistent with a damped oceanic mode of variability. Notably, precipitation-related terms feature prominently in the low-order models, suggesting an important role for latent heat release and freshwater fluxes in mediating ocean–atmosphere interactions. We propose new feedback mechanisms between North Atlantic sea surface temperature and the NAO, with precipitation acting as a dynamical bridge. Overall, these results illustrate how equation discovery can provide mechanistic hypotheses and new insight beyond conventional analyses of observations and climate model simulations.
Image calibration between the Extreme Ultraviolet Imagers on Solar Orbiter and the Solar Dynamics Observatory
Astronomy and Astrophysics 703 (2025)