Prof. Peter Read

Abstract:

Shadowing trajectories are model trajectories consistent with a sequence of observations of a system, given a distribution of observational noise. The existence of such trajectories is a desirable property of any forecast model. Gradient descent of indeterminism is a well-established technique for finding shadowing trajectories in low-dimensional analytical systems. Here we apply it to the thermally-driven rotating annulus, a laboratory experiment intermediate in model complexity and physical idealisation between analytical systems and global, comprehensive atmospheric models. We work in the perfect model scenario using the MORALS model to generate a sequence of noisy observations in a chaotic flow regime. We demonstrate that the gradient descent technique recovers a pseudo-orbit of model states significantly closer to a model trajectory than the initial sequence. Gradient-free descent is used, where the adjoint model is set to $\lambda$I in the absence of a full adjoint model. The indeterminism of the pseudo-orbit falls by two orders of magnitude during the descent, but we find that the distance between the pseudo-orbit and the initial, true, model trajectory reaches a minimum and then diverges from truth. We attribute this to the use of the $\lambda$-adjoint, which is well suited to noise reduction but not to finely-tuned convergence towards a model trajectory. We find that $\lambda=0.25$ gives optimal results, and that candidate model trajectories begun from this pseudo-orbit shadow the observations for up to 80 s, about the length of the longest timescale of the system, and similar to expected shadowing times based on the distance between the pseudo-orbit and the truth. There is great potential for using this method with real laboratory data.