Simulation-based inference for AGN jet population modelling: Towards more robust comparisons of black hole jet speeds

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1515

Authors:

Clara Lilje, James H Matthews, Rob Fender

Abstract:

Abstract We present the most complete modelling of the MOJAVE 1.5 Jansky Quarter Century active galactic nuclei (AGN) jet population, using likelihood-free simulation-based inference. Due to the complex impact of a flux-limit on observed AGN data sets, careful modelling of the parent population is required. In particular, when observing and fitting to multiple data distributions likelihoods become non-intuitive. Parameter degeneracies further complicate the problem and make it suitable for likelihood-free, simulation-based inference. This method relies on a normalising flow learning the likelihood surface or posteriors directly. We extensively validate the flow to show that previous parameter estimates for the AGN jet speed distributions underestimated parameter errors significantly and do not capture the non-gaussianity of the parameter posteriors. The new results enable a better statistical comparison to other AGN population studies, but also a more accurate comparison of supermassive black hole jets with their lower mass counterparts, X-ray binaries (XRB). We find that the AGN follow a Lorentz factor distribution of the shape N(Γ)∝Γb with $b= -1.32_{-0.19}^{+0.20}$. This slope is consistent with the XRB Lorentz factor distribution at 2σ. Simulation-based inference as a method is generally well-suited to many astrophysical problems, and this paper shows the convenient applicability of this methodology to parent population studies of jetted AGN with multiple observables specifically.

A Real-Time Jet Laboratory in Swift J1727.8-1613

Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia Cambridge University Press (CUP) (2026) 1-28

Authors:

Callan M Wood, James CA Miller-Jones, Arash Bahramian, Steven J Tingay, Sara E Motta, Hongmin Cao, Thomas D Russell, Francesco Carotenuto, Pikky Atri, Diego Altamirano, Alexandra J Tetarenko, Rob Fender, Elmar Körding, Dipankar Maitra, Sera Markoff, David M Russell, Gregory R Sivakoff, Roberto Soria, Valeriu Tudose

Abstract:

Abstract Multi-wavelength observations of low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) during bright outbursts reveal many details about the coupling of their inflows and outflows. However, only high angular resolution radio observations are able to resolve and track the motion and variability of individual jet ejecta. We present the results of our intensive VLBI campaign on the black-hole low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) Swift J1727.8-1613 during its 2023-2024 outburst. We observed the repeated quenching and re-establishment of the highly-extended continuous core jet during several transitions between hard-intermediate and soft-intermediate states, and the repeated ejection of transient jets. Using time-dependent visibility model fitting, we tracked the motion of nine discrete jet knots, obtaining some of the most precise measurements of transient jet proper motions and ejection dates in an LMXB. These ejecta were only detectable for a short time with VLBI, and some showed rapid intra-observation flux density variability that was not captured in image reconstructions. For the first time, we use time-dependent visibility modelling to fit a piecewise model for the jet knot flux densities, allowing us to create complex, non-parametric light curves of their intra-observation variability. We observed the launching of multiple ejecta across several state transitions, however, we could not identify a consistent signature of jet ejection in the available X-ray intensity or hardness data. We constrained the intrinsic speeds and bulk Lorentz factors of the jet knots, finding that Swift J1727.8-1613 launched both mildly relativistic (βΓ<1) and highly relativistic (βΓ>2) ejecta throughout its outburst. We used their proper motions to constrain a posterior distribution for the maximum inclination angle of the jet axis, which had 50th, 84th, and 99th percentiles of 40°, 50°, and 66°, respectively. These unique observations of the repeated ejection of transient jets by a single LMXB reveal that fixed parameters such as black-hole mass, black-hole spin, and spin-orbit misalignment do not uniquely determine the varying properties of transient jets, particularly their speeds and Lorentz factors.

Quenching of X-ray emission in little red dots by both Compton-thick gas and high accretion rates

Astronomy & Astrophysics EDP Sciences 712 (2026) A61-A61

Authors:

Albert Sneppen, Darach Watson, James H Matthews, Stuart A Sim

Abstract:

Little red dots (LRDs) are candidate high-redshift supermassive black holes accreting in dense gas. They remain undetected in X-rays. In previous work, we provided the first quantitative models that reproduce the optical and near-infrared spectra of LRDs with the S IROCCO radiative transfer code, thereby constraining the properties of the surrounding gas. Here, we use these constraints to predict the X-ray attenuation produced by dense gas cocoons, and explore its dependence on Balmer-break strength, metallicity, intrinsic X-ray spectral energy distribution, and observed bandpass as a function of redshift. The X-ray constraints are very tight, requiring extinction by a Compton-thick gas column ( N H ∼ 10 25 cm −2 ) with moderate metallicity (0.05-0.1 Z ) and intrinsically weak X-ray emission (the ratio of bolometric to X-ray luminosity is k bol,X ≳ 30), as observed in narrow-line active galactic nuclei with high accretion rates, to make LRDs sufficiently faint to evade detection. Intrinsically bright X-ray emitters as seen in typical broad-line active galactic nuclei would be detected even behind the typical Compton-thick gas columns with modest metallicity that were inferred from the optical spectra. Very low metallicity objects might be detected in X-rays even with low intrinsic X-ray luminosities, suggesting that LRDs are not (currently) chemically pristine.

How massive and clumpy must a quasar wind be to create emission line blueshifts?

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1424

Abstract:

Abstract Blue asymmetries (“Blueshifts”) in the C iv 1550Å emission line are common in luminous quasars. If they are formed in winds, how much energy, momentum and mass do those winds transport? We address this question by considering how much mass must be supplied through the line-forming region to maintain a given density and ionization state. Using a combination of 1D analytic and 2D numerical models, we find that for blueshifted C iv lines to form in a wind, the wind must have mass outflow rates of ~50fV times the accretion rate, where fV ≤ 1 is the volume filling factor accounting for clumping. Our results therefore disfavour line formation in a smooth disc wind and point towards one of two scenarios: either the wind is clumpy, with required clumping factors suggestively close to those in hot star winds; alternatively, if the mass is instead swept up from the ambient medium, the wind need not be clumpy and MHD and radiative winds can provide the original source of momentum and energy. The power of the outflow depends on the square of the terminal velocity of the flow, v∞. If the wind is also the BAL outflow, with v∞ ~ 10, 000 km s−1, the wind power is significant and important for feedback. There are various caveats which moderate our conclusions, motivating i) a better theoretical understanding of wind driving and clump formation physics and ii) improved observational constraints on the physical conditions where the lines are formed.

Optical outburst evolution of the transient black hole X-ray binary Swift J1727.8−1613: disc response to jet ejections and late-outburst emergence of powerful disc winds

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) 550:4 (2026) stag1175

Authors:

N Castro Segura, K Solomons, JM Corral-Santana, C Knigge, PA Charles, M Brigitte, S Fijma, M Díaz Trigo, A Gúrpide, DAH Buckley, F Carotenuto, AJ Castro-Tirado, DL Coppejans, M Georganti, A Hughes, KS Long, J Matthews, I Monageng, I Pelisoli, TD Russell, D Steeghs, J Svoboda, AJ Tetarenko, FM Vincentelli, AGW Wallis

Abstract:

ABSTRACT Swift J1727.8–1613 is a newly discovered transient low-mass X-ray binary harbouring a stellar-mass ($\sim 10\,\mathrm{ M}_\odot$) black hole. We present state-resolved VLT/X-Shooter optical spectroscopy of its 2023 outburst, sampling the luminous hard-to-soft and late soft-to-hard transitions. During the onset of the brightest radio flare, He ii flux rises relative to adjacent epochs, with reduced peak-to-peak separation and full-width-half-maximum, consistent with enhanced irradiation shifting line emissivity to larger radii. We detect no contemporaneous change in the line base tracing the inner disc. The most dramatic change occurs at the onset of the dim-hard state, when strong, broad (higher-order) Balmer lines appear in absorption, and He ii remains in emission, but becomes highly asymmetric. While the hardening of the X-ray spectrum likely promotes the reappearance of an underlying disc photosphere, the kinematic alignment between the Balmer absorption ($v_w\sim -750\, \mathrm{km\, s^{-1}}$) and the suppressed blue peak of He ii suggests a unified origin in a massive, cool ($T\lesssim 10^{4}\, \mathrm{K}$) accretion disc wind. Radiative transfer simulations demonstrate that such asymmetric He ii profiles are naturally produced in a rotating and accelerating outflow. Using the Sobolev approximation, we estimate the wind mass-loss rate to be $\dot{M}_w\gtrsim 10^{-9}\, \mathrm{ M}_\odot \, \mathrm{yr^{-1}}$, comparable to the instantaneous accretion rate and a significant fraction of the secular mass-transfer rate from the donor. If persistent at quiescent-level X-ray luminosities, this outflow could strongly impact the system’s secular evolution.