A new study led by the University of Oxford and ETH Zurich reveals that a key part of the climate system - the large-scale wind patterns that determine where rain falls – can be underestimated by current climate models, helping explain why forecasts of regional rainfall remain uncertain. Ultimately, this insight could enable more confident projections of future rainfall patterns, supporting better preparation for floods and droughts. The study has been published today in Nature.
Lead author Dr Lei Gu (Department of Physics, University of Oxford, formerly at ETH Zurich) is currently working on the research project BREATHE (Bridging Research on Environmental Attribution and Health Equity), led by the University of Bristol with Dr Antje Weisheimer serving as Co-PI and leading the Oxford contribution. The project is building on recent advances in rainfall attribution research to link large-scale circulation changes with regional climate impacts. The team are using high-resolution weather forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to better understand how climate change is altering the large-scale circulation patterns that shape rainfall, and what this means for the risk of floods and droughts.