New paper: the butterfly effect measured for a storm over Germany

Edward Lorenz proposed the butterfly effect back in the 1960s - the idea that the flap of tiny butterflies could change the course of the weather on the other side of the world. Our very own Edward Groot has just submitted his latest paper which demonstrates this effect at work in the development of a convective thunderstorm. In Edward's study, the potential for tiny butterfly-like perturbations to critically affect the development of deep-convective thunderstorms is assessed. Edward finds the perturbations affect the outflow at the top of the storm, impacting the dynamics of large-scale pressure systems which shift weather patterns. The associated chain of dynamical processes could explain important so-called forecast busts. Edward's paper has been submitted to Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. You can find a pre-print here.