screenshot of paper
Many congratulation to Lei Gu on her paper "Uncertain dynamic response of mid-latitude winter precipitation" which appeared in Nature earlier this week!
Using a combination of statistical methods and climate model experiments, Lei and colleagues from ETH Zurich separated thermodynamic and dynamic drivers of rainfall changes. They find that climate models consistently capture thermodynamic changes and can reliably predict how a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. However, they struggle to represent changes in large-scale circulation patterns, particularly in regions where these patterns play a dominant role, and thus are what ultimately determines where rain falls.
See also https://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/news/new-insight-uncertainty-rainfall-prediction.