Philip Stier

Abstract:

We analyze the importance of cloud top temperature, dust aerosol, sea salt aerosol, and sea ice cover for the thermodynamic phase of low‐level, mid‐level, and mid to low‐level clouds observed by CloudSat/CALIPSO over the Arctic and the Southern Ocean using an explainable machine learning technique. As expected, the cloud top temperature is found to be the most important parameter for determining cloud phase. The results show also a predictive power of sea salt and sea ice on the phase of low‐level clouds, while in mid‐level clouds dust shows predictive power. Over the Southern Ocean, strong zonal winds coincide with the aerosol distribution. While they can produce high mixing ratios of sea spray at lower levels, the strong zonal winds may prevent the pole‐ward transport of dust. Sea ice may prevent the release of sea salt aerosols and marine organic aerosols leading to higher liquid fractions in clouds over sea ice.

Abstract:

Climate modelling and analysis are facing new demands to enhance projections and climate information. Here we argue that now is the time to push the frontiers of machine learning beyond state-of-the-art approaches, not only by developing machine-learning-based Earth system models with greater fidelity, but also by providing new capabilities through emulators for extreme event projections with large ensembles, enhanced detection and attribution methods for extreme events, and advanced climate model analysis and benchmarking. Utilizing this potential requires key machine learning challenges to be addressed, in particular generalization, uncertainty quantification, explainable artificial intelligence and causality. This interdisciplinary effort requires bringing together machine learning and climate scientists, while also leveraging the private sector, to accelerate progress towards actionable climate science.

Abstract:

Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm−2. Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.