Simulation-based inference for AGN jet population modelling: Towards more robust comparisons of black hole jet speeds

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1515

Authors:

Clara Lilje, James H Matthews, Rob Fender

Abstract:

Abstract We present the most complete modelling of the MOJAVE 1.5 Jansky Quarter Century active galactic nuclei (AGN) jet population, using likelihood-free simulation-based inference. Due to the complex impact of a flux-limit on observed AGN data sets, careful modelling of the parent population is required. In particular, when observing and fitting to multiple data distributions likelihoods become non-intuitive. Parameter degeneracies further complicate the problem and make it suitable for likelihood-free, simulation-based inference. This method relies on a normalising flow learning the likelihood surface or posteriors directly. We extensively validate the flow to show that previous parameter estimates for the AGN jet speed distributions underestimated parameter errors significantly and do not capture the non-gaussianity of the parameter posteriors. The new results enable a better statistical comparison to other AGN population studies, but also a more accurate comparison of supermassive black hole jets with their lower mass counterparts, X-ray binaries (XRB). We find that the AGN follow a Lorentz factor distribution of the shape N(Γ)∝Γb with $b= -1.32_{-0.19}^{+0.20}$. This slope is consistent with the XRB Lorentz factor distribution at 2σ. Simulation-based inference as a method is generally well-suited to many astrophysical problems, and this paper shows the convenient applicability of this methodology to parent population studies of jetted AGN with multiple observables specifically.

Properties of Black Hole Mergers in Disks of Active Galactic Nuclei

The Astrophysical Journal American Astronomical Society 1007:1 (2026) 67

Authors:

Hiromichi Tagawa, Zoltán Haiman, Bence Kocsis

Abstract:

Ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) observatories have detected approximately 200 binary black hole (BH) mergers. The astrophysical origin of these events is debated, with evidence suggesting that at least a subset originated from dynamic environments characterized by frequent close encounters. Accretion disks in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are of particular interest, as certain observed features could be more readily produced within such environments. In this paper, we investigate the expected properties of mergers in these environments, and their dependence on various parameters, using 1D N-body simulations combined with a comprehensive semianalytical model. In our fiducial model, the distributions of masses (m1 and m2) and mass ratios (q ≡ m2/m1 ≤ 1) are similar to those observed. However, they depend strongly on the lifetime and density of the AGN disk and on the number and accretion efficiency of BHs, with higher masses predicted as these quantities increase. The most massive mergers, such as GW231123, can be produced either by efficient gas accretion or by hierarchical mergers among ≥3 generations of BHs. The observed negative correlation between q and the average effective spin (χeff), along with the positive correlation between χeff and the chirp mass (Mchirp), can be explained by a combination of efficient gas accretion, which promotes spin alignment, and hierarchical mergers, which produce high-∣χeff∣ and low-q binaries. Hierarchical mergers can also explain the negative correlation between q and the dispersion of χeff, as well as the positive correlation between ∣χeff∣and Mchirp. We present a comprehensive study on how the expected distribution of each of these quantities depends on model parameters and assumptions, which will aid the interpretation of observed GW population properties.

Spatial correlations of PAH, UV, Hα emission and IMF–PAH variations in the star-forming complexes of NGC 628

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) 551:1 (2026) stag1410

Authors:

S Amrutha, Dimitra Rigopoulou, Mousumi Das, Jyoti Yadav

Abstract:

ABSTRACT We examine the spatial correlation of emission from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) (3.3, 7.7, and 11.3 $\mathrm{\mu m}$) with the far-ultraviolet (FUV), near-ultraviolet (NUV), and H$\alpha$ emission from star-forming complexes (SFCs) in different regions of NGC 628. We use the James Webb Space Telescope to detect PAH emission, along with the Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope and Multi-Unit Spectroscopic Explorer observations to sample the UV and H$\alpha$ emission, respectively. We investigate the correlation of PAH luminosities with FUV, NUV, and H$\alpha$ luminosities for the extracted SFCs. We find that the arm and spur SFCs show bright PAH emission, except for those with only NUV emission, located primarily in bubbles and superbubbles. We also examine these correlations in the phantom void, the largest superbubble in NGC 628. We investigate the trend for FUV-NUV and the Initial mass function (IMF) index $\alpha _2$ derived from the ratio of B stars with PAH band ratios (F335M/F1130W, F770W/F1130W, and F335M/F770W). We find that PAH band ratios increase as the IMF becomes more top-heavy and the SFCs become bluer, consistent with enhanced PAH excitation and ionization in stronger UV radiation fields. However, $\alpha _2$ of spur SFCs shows a flat trend with PAH band ratios compared to arms. Upon closer examination, two SFCs in the shell region of the phantom void showed a flatter IMF compared to the SFC located near the elongated bubble. This is likely due to gas accumulation, possibly through feedback mechanisms in the shell region, while the SFC near the elongated bubble may have formed in a region affected by shear.

Beyond the Dot: An LRD-like Nucleus at the Heart of an IR-bright Galaxy and its Implications for High-redshift LRDs

The Astrophysical Journal American Astronomical Society 1006:2 (2026) 205

Authors:

Pierluigi Rinaldi, George H Rieke, Zihao Wu, Carys JE Gilbert, Fabio Pacucci, Luigi Barchiesi, Stacey Alberts, Stefano Carniani, Andrew J Bunker, Rachana Bhatawdekar, Francesco D’Eugenio, Zhiyuan Ji, Benjamin D Johnson, Kevin Hainline, Vasily Kokorev, Nimisha Kumari, Edoardo Iani, Jianwei Lyu, Roberto Maiolino, Eleonora Parlanti, Brant E Robertson, Yang Sun, Cristian Vignali, Christina C Williams, Christopher NA Willmer, Yongda Zhu

Abstract:

Little red dots (LRDs) are compact, red sources discovered by JWST at high redshift (z ≳ 4), marked by distinctive “V-shaped” spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and often interpreted as rapidly accreting active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Their true nature remains unclear though, and their evolutionary connection to their lower-redshift counterparts is still poorly constrained. Thus, we present WISEA J123635.56+621424.2 (here dubbed the Saguaro), a z = 2.0145 galaxy in GOODS-North, as a possible analog of high-redshift LRDs and a potential missing link in their evolutionary path toward lower-redshift systems. It features a compact LRD-like nucleus surrounded by a face-on spiral host. Its connections to LRDs include the following: (1) its nuclear spectrum shows a clear “V-shaped” SED, and (2) when redshifted to z = 7, surface brightness dimming makes the host undetectable, thus mimicking an LRD. This suggests that high-redshift LRDs may be embedded in extended hosts. To test this, we stack rest-frame UV images of 99 photometrically selected LRDs, revealing faint, diffuse emission. Stacking in redshift bins reveals mild radial growth, consistent with the expected galaxy size evolution. A simple analytic model confirms that surface brightness dimming alone can explain their compact appearance. Lastly, we show that the Saguaro is not unique by describing similar objects from the literature at z ≲ 3.5. Taken together, our results support a scenario in which LRDs may not be a distinct population, but could be the visible nuclei of galaxies undergoing a short-lived, (perhaps) AGN-dominated evolutionary phase, with their compact, red appearance driven largely by observational biases.

Dust-embedded Star Formation: Bridging Magellanic Cloud Studies of Massive Young Stellar Objects to Nearby Spiral Galaxies

Astrophysical Journal 1006:2 (2026)

Authors:

MJ Rodríguez, R Indebetouw, JC Lee, BC Whitmore, DA Thilker, J Peltonen, E Rosolowsky, TG Williams, EW Koch, B Elmegreen, RS Klessen, R Paladini, S Sarbadhicary, DA Dale, KE Johnson, A Wofford

Abstract:

We use JWST NIRCam and MIRI imaging at 2, 4, 10, and 21 μm to study young, dusty compact sources in four nearby galaxies at distances of ∼1–5 Mpc (M33, NGC 300, NGC 7793, and NGC 5068). This work bridges well-characterized massive young stellar objects (MYSOs) in the Magellanic Clouds from the Spitzer Space Telescope SAGE survey to new studies of embedded clusters in more distant galaxies with JWST. Guided by the SAGE-LMC catalog, we define JWST color–magnitude selection criteria (F1000W versus F1000W − F2100W) and test them using resolution-degradation experiments. We identify 216, 32, 80, and 139 dusty young objects in the four galaxies, respectively. The selected population spans sources from systems dominated by a single MYSO to compact marginally resolved sources hosting multiple MYSOs. The color selection remains stable across 1–5 Mpc, and the 10 μm luminosity function retains a slope of α ∼ −2. However, blending and surface-brightness dilution remove fainter sources, leading to incompleteness of up to ∼50% at 5.2 Mpc and biasing the sample toward brighter objects (F1000W < 19 mag). The sample spans approximate stellar masses of ∼10–2 × 105 M. Spatial resolution affects the interpretation of mid-IR emission: clustering increases the fraction of emission attributed to compact sources in active regions, while blending into diffuse emission dominates in quiescent environments. Comparisons with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-selected young clusters in the PHANGS galaxy NGC 5068 show that our selection recovers ∼80% of the PAH-selected sources. We show that the practical limit for studying individual MYSOs with JWST is ∼3 Mpc. The resulting catalog provides a foundation for future resolved studies of star formation rates and early cluster evolution.