Hintze Centre for Astrophysical Surveys

Abstract:

Abstract We present the most complete modelling of the MOJAVE 1.5 Jansky Quarter Century active galactic nuclei (AGN) jet population, using likelihood-free simulation-based inference. Due to the complex impact of a flux-limit on observed AGN data sets, careful modelling of the parent population is required. In particular, when observing and fitting to multiple data distributions likelihoods become non-intuitive. Parameter degeneracies further complicate the problem and make it suitable for likelihood-free, simulation-based inference. This method relies on a normalising flow learning the likelihood surface or posteriors directly. We extensively validate the flow to show that previous parameter estimates for the AGN jet speed distributions underestimated parameter errors significantly and do not capture the non-gaussianity of the parameter posteriors. The new results enable a better statistical comparison to other AGN population studies, but also a more accurate comparison of supermassive black hole jets with their lower mass counterparts, X-ray binaries (XRB). We find that the AGN follow a Lorentz factor distribution of the shape N(Γ)∝Γb with $b= -1.32_{-0.19}^{+0.20}$. This slope is consistent with the XRB Lorentz factor distribution at 2σ. Simulation-based inference as a method is generally well-suited to many astrophysical problems, and this paper shows the convenient applicability of this methodology to parent population studies of jetted AGN with multiple observables specifically.

Abstract:

We present early (≲1 yr) multiwavelength observations and analysis of six luminous fast blue optical transients (LFBOTs). We identified these LFBOTs in Zwicky Transient Facility survey data from their fast light-curve evolution (t1/2 ≤ 12 days), blue colors at peak brightness (g − r ≤ −0.2 mag), a visible host galaxy, high optical luminosity (Mg < −20 mag), and an X-ray and/or radio detection. With the exception of AT2024aehp (ZTF24abygbss), these transients exhibit peaks in their 10 GHz radio light curves at trest ≈ 50–100 days, with peak radio luminosities ranging from 1038 to 1040 erg s−1. Modeling the radio emission as synchrotron radiation indicates a fast (v = 0.1–0.3c) shock in a dense (ne ≈ 103–104 cm−3) medium. The X-ray emission varies by ≈2 orders of magnitude in luminosity (1042–1044 erg s−1) at trest ∼ 20 days. Analysis of the host-galaxy photometry and spectroscopy for each transient shows that LFBOTs are predominantly nonnuclear (a few kiloparsecs offset) with star-forming host galaxies of stellar masses = 109–1011 M⊙. Unlike all other LFBOTs to date, AT2024aehp exhibited a luminous (M < −19 mag) plateau in the optical light curve and its 6–15 GHz radio emission brightened by over an order of magnitude from trest ≈ 70 to 130 days. The mostly consistent radio behavior between these LFBOTs implies a similar circumburst medium, leading us to prefer a progenitor scenario in which mass is lost in a consistent way shortly prior to the terminal event.