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Credit: Nicholas Leach 2022

Dr Nicholas Leach

Senior Postdoctoral Research Assistant in Weather & Climate Impacts on Health

Research theme

  • Climate physics

Sub department

  • Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics

Research groups

  • Predictability of weather and climate
nicholas.leach@physics.ox.ac.uk
Atmospheric Physics Clarendon Laboratory, room 117
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  • About
  • Publications

I work as a postdoctoral researcher within the Predictability of Weather and Climate research group, supervised by Antje Weisheimer and Myles Allen. My research explores the use of operational weather forecasting models within the field of extreme event attribution, with a particular focus on heat events and storms. This work touches on themes of numerical weather prediction, attribution of climate change, meteorological drivers of extreme weather and extreme value statistics. This continues work I carried out during my PhD, and for a somewhat deep dive into this work, you can find my PhD thesis, “Reliable attribution and projection of extreme heat events altered by human influence on the climate” here. I am currently interested in exploring how we can leverage state-of-the-art modelling and knowledge from climate science and atmospheric physics to improve understanding of the impacts of extreme events and climate change - and quantifying the anthropogenic component within those impacts.

I am also a climate scientist at Climate X, specialising in the quantifying the impact of climate change on storm systems globally. My role involves both assessing how to apply state-of-the art academic research to provide the detailed information on climate risk required by the financial industry, and designing novel ways that can improve upon more traditional approaches of quantifying extreme weather risk from storm systems in both the tropics and extratropics. I combine a variety of statistical methods and models with observational data and state-of-the-art physical climate and weather model simulations in my work, and am always interested in new approaches in this space, so if you’re an academic researching physical extreme weather risk and interested in working with industry, please get in touch!

I started out in climate change research during a summer research project (that I would develop into my masters thesis) investigating a simple method for estimating the remaining global carbon budget. While this particular field is no longer my focus, I still remain involved, especially in the use and development of reduced complexity climate models. I led a paper describing an update to the FaIR simple climate model.

I completed my masters degree in physics (MPhys) at Oxford University, specialising in the Physics of Atmospheres and Oceans, and Astrophysics. For more information on my background and experience you can find my CV here.

Research interests

"climate physics", "extreme weather", "NWP".

Selected publications

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Sciences 118:49 (2021) e2112087118
Nicholas Leach, Antje Weisheimer, Myles Allen, Tim Palmer

Anthropogenic influence on the 2018 summer warm spell in Europe: the impact of different spatio-temporal scales

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society 101:S1 (2020) S41-S46
Nicholas Leach, S Li, S Sparrow, GJ Van Oldenborgh, FC Lott, A Weisheimer, Allen

Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation

Weather and Climate Extremes Elsevier 36 (2022) 100419
Nicholas Leach, Peter AG Watson, Sarah N Sparrow, David CH Wallom, David MH Sexton
See all publications

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