Suitable Measures for the Potential Operational Utility of AI NWP Rainfall Forecasts Over Africa
ArXiv 2609.31775 (2026)
Invited perspectives: Towards usable compound event research
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science Copernicus Publications 26:9 (2026) 4309-4334
Abstract:
Supporting stakeholders with science-based decision-making to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts is a central mandate of the climate research community. In particular, mapping out scenario-dependent climate risk landscapes is one of the most pressing challenges. Increasingly, communities and regions are experiencing high-impact climate and weather extremes that arise from a complex interplay of processes and events acting across various spatial and temporal scales. To account for these emerging trends, there is a growing recognition that both climate impact and early warning research needs to incorporate risks from compound events to better inform climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. This demand for more fine-grained and applicable knowledge gives rise to new data and modeling needs, and can increase uncertainties. Consequently, new methodological approaches and effective communication strategies are required for making research usable outside scientific communities. In this perspective, we reflect on this usability challenge by discussing impact data products, early warning and modeling capabilities, and communication tools, urging climate impact scientists to increasingly incorporate usability considerations in their research to meet the pressing demand for usable compound event research.100 m climate and heat stress data up to 2100 for 142 cities around the globe
Data in Brief Elsevier 65 (2026) 112497
Abstract:
Cities worldwide are increasingly facing the challenges of heat stress, a problem expected to worsen with ongoing climate change. The lack of detailed, city-specific data hinders effective response measures and limits the adaptive capacity of urban populations. In this data descriptor, we introduce a comprehensive database providing climate and heat stress information for 142 cities globally, covering the present and extending projections up to 2100 across three distinct climate scenarios, including two overshoot scenarios. This dataset includes 34 heat stress indicators at a spatial resolution of 100 meters, offering a unique database to identify vulnerable areas and deepen the understanding of urban heat risks. The data is presented through an accessible, user-friendly dashboard, enabling policymakers, researchers, and city planners, as well as non-experts, to easily visualise and interpret the findings, supporting more informed decision-making and urban adaptation strategies.MERCURY: A Fast and Versatile Multi‐Resolution Based Global Emulator of Compound Climate Hazards
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Wiley 17:11 (2025) e2024MS004905
Abstract:
Plain Language Summary: Climate model emulators are approximations of climate models that provide a quick and low‐cost alternative to exploring future climate scenarios. Traditional emulators generate large amounts of data covering the whole world, which still need to be condensed when exploring local and regional impacts. In this paper, we propose a new emulator based off image compression techniques. The setup allows one to “zoom” in and out from global to regional to local levels, providing user‐relevant information across scales. It furthermore conserves both large‐scale and local features and can be run in minutes. Given its versatile framework, the approach is easily extendable to new variables, and in this paper we demonstrate its ability to jointly capture temperature and relative humidity.MERCURY: A fast and versatile multi-resolution based global emulator of compound climate hazards
ArXiv 2501.04018 (2024)