Tim Reichelt

Abstract:

Sensitivity analysis is a cornerstone of climate science, essential for understanding phenomena ranging from storm intensity to long-term climate feedbacks. However, computing these sensitivities using traditional physical models is often prohibitively expensive in terms of both computation and development time. While modern AI-based generative models are orders of magnitude faster to evaluate, computing sensitivities with them remains a significant bottleneck. This work addresses this challenge by applying the adjoint state method for calculating gradients in generative flow models. We apply this method to the cBottle generative model, trained on ERA5 and ICON data, to perform sensitivity analysis of any atmospheric variable with respect to sea surface temperatures. We quantitatively validate the computed sensitivities against the model’s own outputs. Our results provide initial evidence that this approach can produce reliable gradients, reducing the computational cost of sensitivity analysis from weeks on a supercomputer with a physical model to hours on a GPU, thereby simplifying a critical workflow in climate science. The code can be found at https://github.com/Kwartzl8/ cbottle_adjoint_sensitivity.

Abstract:

Over the past decades, there has been an explosion in the amount of available Earth observation (EO) data. The unprecedented coverage of Earth’s surface and atmosphere by satellite imagery has resulted in large volumes of data that must be transmitted to ground stations, stored in data centers, and distributed to end users. Modern Earth system models (ESMs) face similar challenges, operating at high spatial and temporal resolutions, producing petabytes of data per simulated day. Data compression has gained relevance over the past decade, with neural compression (NC) emerging from deep learning and information theory, making EO data and ESM outputs ideal candidates because of their abundance of unlabeled data.

In this review, we outline recent developments in NC applied to geospatial data. We introduce the fundamental concepts of NC, including seminal works in its traditional applications to image and video compression domains with a focus on lossy compression. We discuss the unique characteristics of EO and ESM data, contrasting them with “natural images,” and we explain the additional challenges and opportunities they present. Additionally, we review current applications of NC across various EO modalities and explore the limited efforts in ESM compression to date. The advent of self-supervised learning (SSL) and foundation models (FMs) has advanced methods to efficiently distill representations from vast amounts of unlabeled data. We connect these developments to NC for EO, highlighting the similarities between the two fields and elaborate on the potential of transferring compressed feature representations for machine-to-machine communication. Based on insights drawn from this review, we devise future directions relevant to applications in EO and ESMs.

Abstract:

The posterior in probabilistic programs with stochastic support decomposes as a weighted sum of the local posterior distributions associated with each possible program path. We show that making predictions with this full posterior implicitly performs a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) over paths. This is potentially problematic, as BMA weights can be unstable due to model misspecification or inference approximations, leading to sub-optimal predictions in turn. To remedy this issue, we propose alternative mechanisms for path weighting: one based on stacking and one based on ideas from PAC-Bayes. We show how both can be implemented as a cheap post-processing step on top of existing inference engines. In our experiments, we find them to be more robust and lead to better predictions compared to the default BMA weights.

Abstract:

We show that the standard computational pipeline of probabilistic programming systems (PPSs) can be inefficient for estimating expectations and introduce the concept of expectation programming to address this. In expectation programming, the aim of the backend inference engine is to directly estimate expected return values of programs, as opposed to approximating their conditional distributions. This distinction, while subtle, allows us to achieve substantial performance improvements over the standard PPS computational pipeline by tailoring computation to the expectation we care about. We realize a particular instance of our expectation programming concept, Expectation Programming in Turing (EPT), by extending the PPS Turing to allow so-called target-aware inference to be run automatically. We then verify the statistical soundness of EPT theoretically, and show that it provides substantial empirical gains in practice.