Isabelle Taylor

Abstract:

Uncertainty-bounded satellite retrievals of volcanic ash cloud properties such as ash cloud-top height, effective radius, optical depth and mass loading are needed for the robust quantitative assessment required to warn aviation of potential hazards. Moreover, there is an imperative to improve quantitative ash cloud estimation due to the planned move towards quantitative ash concentration forecasts by the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers. Here we apply the Optimal Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) algorithm to Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) measurements of the ash clouds produced by the June 2019 Raikoke (Russia) eruption. The ORAC algorithm uses an optimal estimation technique to consolidate a priori information, satellite measurements and associated uncertainties into uncertainty-bounded estimates of the desired state variables. Using ORAC, we demonstrate several improvements in thermal infrared volcanic ash retrievals applied to broadband imagers. These include an improved treatment of measurement noise, accounting for multi-layer cloud scenarios, distinguishing between heights in the troposphere and stratosphere, and the retrieval of a wider range of effective radii sizes than existing techniques by exploiting information from the 10.4 µm channel. Our results indicate that 0.73 ± 0.40 Tg of very fine ash (radius ≤ 15 µm) was injected into the atmosphere during the main eruptive period from 21 June 18:00 UTC to 22 June 10:00 UTC. The total mass of very fine ash decreased from 0.73 to 0.10 Tg over ∼ 48 h, with an e-folding time of 20 h. We estimate a distal fine ash mass fraction of 0.73 % ± 0.62 % based on the total mass of very fine ash retrieved and the ORAC-derived height–time series. Several distinct ash layers were revealed by the ORAC height retrievals. Generally, ash in the troposphere was composed of larger particles than ash present in the stratosphere. We also find that median ash cloud concentrations fall below peak ash concentration safety limits (< 4 mg m−3) 11–16 h after the eruption begins, if typical ash cloud geometric thicknesses are assumed. The ORAC height retrievals for the near-source plume showed good agreement with GOES-17 side-view height data (R=0.84; bias = −0.75 km); however, a larger negative bias was found when comparing ORAC height retrievals for distal ash clouds against Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarisation (CALIOP) measurements (R=0.67; bias = −2.67 km). The dataset generated here provides uncertainties at the pixel level for all retrieved variables and could potentially be used for dispersion model validation or be implemented in data assimilation schemes. Future work should focus on improving ash detection, improving height estimation in the stratosphere and exploring the added benefit of visible channels for retrieving effective radius and optical depth in opaque regions of nascent ash plumes.

Abstract:

Volcanic eruptions eject large amounts of ash and trace gases such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the atmosphere. A significant difficulty in mitigating the impact of volcanic SO2 clouds on air traffic safety is that these gas emissions can be rapidly transported over long distances. The use of space-borne instruments enables the global monitoring of volcanic SO2 emissions in an economical and risk-free manner. Within the European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinel-5p+ Innovation project, the S5P SO2 layer height (S5P+I: SO2LH) activities led to the improvements of the retrieval algorithm and generation of the corresponding near real-time S5P SO2 LH products. These are currently operationally provided, in near real-time, by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) within the framework of the Innovative Products for Analyses of Atmospheric Composition (INPULS) project. The main aim of this paper is to present its extensive verification, accomplished within the S5P+I: SO2LH project, over major recent volcanic eruptions, against collocated space-borne measurements from the IASI/Metop and CALIOP/CALIPSO instruments as well as assess its impact on the forecasts provided by the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). The mean difference between S5P and IASI observations for the Raikoke 2019, the Nishinoshima 2020 and the La Soufrière-St Vincent 2021 eruptive periods is ∼ 0.5 ± 3 km, while for the Taal 2020 eruption, a larger difference was found, between 3 ± 3 km and 4 ± 3 km. The comparison of the daily mean SO2 LH further demonstrates the capabilities of this near real-time product, with slopes between 0.8 and 1 and correlation coefficients ranging between 0.6 and 0.8. Comparisons between the S5P SO2 LH and the CALIOP/CALIPSO ash plumes revealed an expected bias at −2.5 ± 2 km, considering that the injected SO2 and ash plume locations do not always coincide over an eruption. Furthermore, the CAMS assimilation of the S5P SO2 LH product led to much improved model output against the non-assimilated IASI LH, with a mean difference of 1.5 ± 2 km, compared to the original CAMS analysis, and improved the geographical spread of the Raikoke volcanic plume following the eruptive days.

Abstract:

Volcanic eruptions eject large amounts of ash and trace gases such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the atmosphere. A significant difficulty in mitigating the impact of volcanic SO2 clouds on air traffic safety is that these gas emissions can be rapidly transported over long distances. The use of space-borne instruments enables the global monitoring of volcanic SO2 emissions in an economical and risk-free manner. Within the European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinel-5p+ Innovation project, the S5P SO2 layer height (S5P+I: SO2LH) activities led to the improvements of the retrieval algorithm and generation of the corresponding near real-time S5P SO2 LH products. These are currently operationally provided, in near real-time, by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) within the framework of the Innovative Products for Analyses of Atmospheric Composition (INPULS) project. The main aim of this paper is to present its extensive verification, accomplished within the S5P+I: SO2LH project, over major recent volcanic eruptions, against collocated space-borne measurements from the IASI/Metop and CALIOP/CALIPSO instruments as well as assess its impact on the forecasts provided by the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). The mean difference between S5P and IASI observations for the Raikoke 2019, the Nishinoshima 2020 and the La Soufrière-St Vincent 2021 eruptive periods is g-1/4 0.5 ± 3 km, while for the Taal 2020 eruption, a larger difference was found, between 3 ± 3 km and 4 ± 3 km. The comparison of the daily mean SO2 LH further demonstrates the capabilities of this near real-time product, with slopes between 0.8 and 1 and correlation coefficients ranging between 0.6 and 0.8. Comparisons between the S5P SO2 LH and the CALIOP/CALIPSO ash plumes revealed an expected bias at -2.5 ± 2 km, considering that the injected SO2 and ash plume locations do not always coincide over an eruption. Furthermore, the CAMS assimilation of the S5P SO2 LH product led to much improved model output against the non-assimilated IASI LH, with a mean difference of 1.5 ± 2 km, compared to the original CAMS analysis, and improved the geographical spread of the Raikoke volcanic plume following the eruptive days.

Abstract:

Gas and particulate matter (PM) emissions from Masaya volcano, Nicaragua, cause substantial regional volcanic air pollution (VAP). We evaluate the suitability of low-cost SO2 and PM sensors for a continuous airquality network. The network was deployed for six months in five populated areas (4-16 km from crater). The SO2 sensors failed and recorded erroneous values on multiple occasions, likely due to corrosion, requiring significant maintenance commitment. The PM sensors were found to be robust but data required correction for humidity. SO2 measurements could not be used as stand-alone tools to detect occurrence of VAP episodes (VAPE), but a SO2/PM correlation reliably achieved this at near-field stations, as confirmed by meteorological forecasts and satellite imagery. Above-background PM concentrations reliably identified VAPE at both near-field and far-field stations. We suggest that a continuous network can be built from a combination of low-cost PM and SO2 sensors with a greater number of PM-only sensors.