Maria Vincenzi

Abstract:

We present a simulation of the time-domain catalog for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope’s High-Latitude Time-Domain Core Community Survey. This simulation, called the Hourglass simulation, uses the most up-to-date spectral energy distribution models and rate measurements for 10 extragalactic time-domain sources. We simulate these models through the design reference Roman Space Telescope survey: four filters per tier, a five-day cadence, over 2 yr, a wide tier of 19 deg2, and a deep tier of 4.2 deg2, with ∼20% of those areas also covered with prism observations. We find that a science-independent Roman time-domain catalog, assuming a signal-to-noise ratio at a max of >5, would have approximately 21,000 Type Ia supernovae, 40,000 core-collapse supernovae, around 70 superluminous supernovae, ∼35 tidal disruption events, three kilonovae, and possibly pair-instability supernovae. In total, Hourglass has over 64,000 transient objects, 11,000,000 photometric observations, and 500,000 spectra. Additionally, Hourglass is a useful data set to train machine learning classification algorithms. We show that SCONE is able to photometrically classify Type Ia supernovae with high precision (∼95%) to a z > 2. Finally, we present the first realistic simulations of non-Type Ia supernovae spectral time series data from Roman’s prism.

Abstract:

Recent cosmological analyses measuring distances of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) have all given similar hints at time-evolving dark energy. To examine whether underestimated SN Ia systematics might be driving these results, Efstathiou (2025) compared overlapping SN events between Pantheon+ and DES-SN5YR (20 per cent SNe are in common), and reported evidence for an 0.04 mag offset between the low- and high-redshift distance measurements of this subsample of events. If this offset is arbitrarily subtracted from the entire DES-SN5YR sample, the preference for evolving dark energy is reduced. In this paper, we show that this offset is mostly due to different corrections for Malmquist bias between the two samples; therefore, an object-to-object comparison can be misleading. Malmquist bias corrections differ between the two analyses for several reasons. First, DES-SN5YR used an improved model of SN Ia luminosity scatter compared to Pantheon+ but the associated scatter-model uncertainties are included in the error budget. Secondly, improvements in host mass estimates in DES-SN5YR also affected SN standardized magnitudes and their bias corrections. Thirdly, and most importantly, the selection functions of the two compilations are significantly different, hence the inferred Malmquist bias corrections. Even if the original scatter model and host properties from Pantheon+ are used instead, the evidence for evolving dark energy from CMB, DESI BAO Year 1 and DES-SN5YR is only reduced from 3.9 to 3.3, consistent with the error budget. Finally, in this investigation, we identify an underestimated systematic uncertainty related to host galaxy property uncertainties, which could increase the final DES-SN5YR error budget by 3 per cent. In conclusion, we confirm the validity of the published DES-SN5YR results.

Abstract:

Recent results from Type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs), and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) indicate (1) potentially discrepant measurements of the matter density Ωm and Hubble constant H0 in the ΛCDM model when analyzed individually and (2) hint of dynamical dark energy in a w0waCDM model when data are combined in a joint analysis. We examine whether underlying dynamical dark energy cosmologies favored by data would result in biases in Ωm and H0 for each probe when analyzed individually under ΛCDM. We generate mock data sets in w0waCDM cosmologies, fit the individual probes under the ΛCDM model, and find that expected biases in Ωm are ∼0.03. Notably, the Ωm differences between probes are consistent with values observed in real data sets. We also observe that mock DESI-BAO data sets generated in the w0wa CDM cosmologies will lead to a biased measurement of H0 higher by ∼1.2 km s−1 Mpc−1 when fitted under ΛCDM, appearing to mildly improve the Hubble tension, but as the true underlying H0 is lower, the tension is in fact worsened. We find that the Ωm discrepancies, the high BAO H0 relative to the CMB, and the joint dynamical dark energy signal are all related effects that could be explained simultaneously with either new physics or new systematics. While it is possible to unite many of the discrepancies seen in recent analyses along a single axis, our results underscore the importance of understanding systematic differences in data sets, as they have unique impacts in different cosmological parameter spaces.