Research group
The Oxford Workshop on Model Uncertainty was held here in Oxford Physics from 23-26 September 2024. With over 100 participants from four continents, we enjoyed a week of lively talks, posters, and discussions about model uncertainty and what we should do about it!
Model uncertainty is the uncertainty inherent in predictions of future weather and climate that comes from the approximations made when building the Earth System Model used to make that prediction. It's important that we account for model uncertainty when making predictions about future weather and climate, to ensure that the risks associated with future weather and climate are reliably captured. Traditionally the weather and climate communities have had very distinct ways of dealing with model uncertainty - this workshop brought those two communities together to learn from each other.
A paper detailing the outcomes of the workshop is planned.
Many thanks to the hard work of all those who made this possible, many of whom are in the Atmospheric Processes group.
Hannah Christensen,
Hugo Lambert (University of Exeter),
Laura Mansfield (Stanford),
Romain Roehrig (CNRM, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France),
Bobby Antonio,
Edward Groot,
Simon Michel,
Greta Miller,
Janet Sadler,
Zhixiao Zhang.
Delegates mingling at lunch
Credit: J. Sadler
Lively poster session
Credit: J. Sadler
Panel discussion on "The future of climate modelling: model uncertainty and the great k-scale debate"
Credit: J. Sadler