Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics

Abstract:

© 2016 Royal Meteorological Society.A two-dimensional regime diagram for geostrophic turbulence in the ocean is constructed by plotting observation-based estimates of the non-dimensional eddy length-scale against a nonlinearity parameter equal to the ratio of the root-mean-square eddy velocity and baroclinic Rossby phase speed. Two estimates of the eddy length-scale are compared: the equivalent eddy radius inferred from the area enclosed by contours of sea-surface height, and the 'unsuppressed' mixing length, based on an estimate of the eddy diffusivity with mean flow effects removed. For weak nonlinearity, as found in the Tropics, the mixing length mostly corresponds to the stability threshold for baroclinic instability whereas the eddy radius corresponds to the Rhines scale; it is suggested that this mismatch is indicative of the inverse energy cascade that occurs at low latitudes in the ocean and the zonal elongation of eddies. At larger values of nonlinearity, as found at mid- and high latitudes, the eddy length-scales are much shorter than the stability threshold, within a factor of 2.5 of the Rossby deformation radius.

Abstract:

© 2015 Royal Meteorological Society. We investigate the predictability of the thermally driven rotating annulus, a laboratory experiment used to study the dynamics of planetary atmospheres under controlled and reproducible conditions. Our approach is to apply the same principles used to predict the atmosphere in operational weather forecasting. We build a forecasting system for the annulus using the analysis correction method for data assimilation, the breeding method for ensemble generation, and the Met Office/Oxford Rotating Annulus Laboratory Simulation as the forecast model. The system forecasts the annulus in steady (2S), amplitude vacillating (3AV), and structurally vacillating (3SV) flow regimes, verifying the forecasts against laboratory data. The results show that a range of flow regimes from this experiment can be accurately predicted. Forecasts in the steady wave flow regime perform well, and are predictable until the end of the available data. Forecasts in the amplitude and structural vacillation flow regimes lose quality and skill by a combination of wave drift and wavenumber transition. Amplitude vacillation is predictable up to several hundred seconds ahead, and structural vacillation is predictable for a few hundred seconds. The wavenumber transitions are partly explained by hysteresis in the rotating annulus experiment and model.

Abstract:

The climate on Earth is generally determined by the amount and distribution of incoming solar radiation, which must be balanced in equilibrium by the emission of thermal radiation from the surface and atmosphere. The precise routes by which incoming energy is transferred from the surface and within the atmosphere and back out to space, however, are important features that characterize the current climate. This has been analysed in the past by several groups over the years,based on combinations of numerical model simulations and direct observations of theEarths climate system. The results are often presented in schematic form to show the main routes for the transfer of energy into, out of and within the climate system. Although relatively simple in concept, such diagrams convey a great deal of information about the climate system in a compact form. Such an approach has not so far been widely adopted in any systematic way for other planets of the Solar System, let alone beyond, although quite detailed climate models of several planets are now available, constrained bymany new observations and measurements. Here we present an analysis of the global transfers of energy within the climate systems of a range of planets within the Solar System,including Mars, Titan, Venus a nd Jupit er, a s mo delled by rela t ively co mprehens iveradiative transfer and (in some cases) numerical circulation models. These results are presented in schematic form for comparison with the classical global energy budget analyses (e.g.Trenberth et al. 2009; Stephenset al.2012; Wildet al.2013; IPCC 2013)for the Earth, highlighting important similarities and differences. We also take the first steps towards extending this approach to other Solar System and extra-solar planets,including Mars, Venus, Titan, Jupiter and the ‘hot Jupiter’ exoplanet HD189733b, presenting a synthesis of `both previously published and new calculations for all of these planets.

Abstract:

The response of the period of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to increases in tropical upwelling are considered using a one-dimensional model. We find that the imposition of the annual cycle in tropical upwelling creates substantial variability in the period of the QBO. The annual cycle creates synchronisation regions in the wave forcing space, within which the QBO period locks onto an integer multiple of the annual forcing period. Outside of these regions, the QBO period undergoes discrete jumps as it attempts to find a stable relationship with the oscillator forcing. The resulting set of QBO periods can be either discrete or broad-banded, depending on the intrinsic period of the QBO.

We use the same model to study the evolution of the QBO period as the strength of tropical upwelling increases as would be expected in a warmer climate. The QBO period lengthens and migrates closer towards 36 and 48 month locking regions as upwelling increases. The QBO period does not vary continuously with increased upwelling, however, but instead transitions through a series of 2- and 3-cycles before becoming locked to the annual cycle. Finally, some observational evidence for the cyclical behaviour of the QBO periods in the real atmosphere is presented.

Abstract:

Large-scale planetary waves are diagnosed from an analysis of profiles retrieved from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft during its scientific mapping phase. The analysis is conducted by assimilating thermal profiles and total dust opacity retrievals into a Mars global circulation model. Transient waves are largest throughout the northern hemisphere autumn, winter and spring period and almost absent during the summer. The southern hemisphere exhibits generally weaker transient wave behaviour. A striking feature of the low-altitude transient waves in the analysis is that they show a broad subsidiary minimum in amplitude centred on the winter solstice, a period when the thermal contrast between the summer hemisphere and the winter pole is strongest and baroclinic wave activity might be expected to be strong. This behaviour, here called the 'solsticial pause,' is present in every year of the analysis. This strong pause is under-represented in many independent model experiments, which tend to produce relatively uniform baroclinic wave activity throughout the winter. This paper documents and diagnoses the transient wave solsticial pause found in the analysis; a companion paper investigates the origin of the phenomenon in a series of model experiments.