We work among extraordinary people doing extraordinary things; get to know some of them by reading these quick-fire interviews.
Name: Shirin Ermis
Job Title: DPhil student, Atmospheric Physics
What are you currently working on?
The focus for my DPhil is to determine if and how extreme events such as windstorms in the UK are changing with climate change. My group in Physics, the Predictability group in AOPP, use weather forecast models to answer these questions. They are well suited to capture extreme weather in their magnitude and dynamics as has been shown by one of my supervisors, Nick Leach. The modelling pipeline that we are currently using works well but still needs to be improved, and so a large part of my DPhil is "hacking" the weather forecast model to represent weather in a different climate. We can then compare the unchanged forecast to the "hacked" forecast to determine how the extreme event would change with climate change.
Groups across the globe have developed a plethora of other attribution methods to investigate the same questions though, and so part of my DPhil has been to determine how these methods differ and why they might give different results.
For my work with the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme I am using our own forecast-based method to investigate how much more costly a flood on the US east coast was due to climate change. This is work that I do closely with Mireia Ginesta, who has done all the heavy lifting of modelling the flood in a hydrological model.
Describe a typical day
I try to be in the office for regular hours during the week. I usually start my day by briefly checking emails for anything that needs doing, then proceed to ignore most emails for way too long. I usually make a clear plan with pen and paper for what I want to work on during the day. Mostly, that is diving into python code for some data analysis or connecting to the HPC to debug some experiment runs. The latter is one of my favourite activities, when I get to run my own weather forecasts. In the afternoon, I will typically have a meeting or so with supervisors or collaborators to discuss recent work. The meantime will be filled with more coding, lots of cups of tea and chats with colleagues.
What got you into physics?
As a teenager, I read a lot of popular science books on cosmology and quantum physics. Then I watched The Day After Tomorrow in school and was fascinated by how the scientist dad could give advice in an emergency situation. It took me a while to realise though that I could use atmospheric physics to work on these kinds of problems!
If you had an entire day at your disposal (not at work/studying), what would be your ideal way to spend it?
I would start my day early after a good night’s sleep and would head out for a long run around Oxfordshire. Afterwards, I would meet friends for brunch at Handlebar (my favourite breakfast in Oxford!) and a browse through Blackwell’s. The afternoon, I would spend reading in cafés and discuss them with friends. For dinner, I would make a big pot of curry while chatting to my housemates before watching a film together.
What is your favourite place in Oxford?
So many good places to choose from! It’s a tie between Burgess Field (the nature reserve next to Port Meadow), Peppers Burgers, Blackwell’s, the coffeeshop Brew, University Parks and AOPP.
Plan B: what would you be if you weren’t doing the job you are currently doing?
I have had my plan B since starting my Physics undergrad and it is to work as a gardener. Gardening is brilliant in giving you a connection to the land and patience to work with the seasons. I recently got an allotment in Oxford and have been enjoying growing my own food. It’s such a good antidote to the modern working world.