Dr Muhammad Adnan Abid

Abstract:

A fully-coupled general circulation model of intermediate complexity is documented. The study presents an overview of the model climatology and variability, with particular attention to the phenomenology of processes that are relevant for the predictability of the climate system on seasonal-to-decadal time-scales. It is shown that the model can realistically simulate the general circulation of the atmosphere and the ocean, as well as the major modes of climate variability on the examined time-scales: e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Tropical Atlantic Variability, Pacific Decadal Variability, Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability. Potential applications of the model are discussed, with emphasis on the possibility of generating sets of low-cost large-ensemble retrospective forecasts. We argue that the presented model is suitable to be employed in traditional and innovative model experiments that can play a significant role in future developments of seasonal-to-decadal climate prediction.

Abstract:

AbstractWe investigate the response of winter precipitation and storm activity in the North Atlantic–European–Mediterranean region (NAEM) to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) from 1979 to 2024. We observe a positive NAO‐like pattern over NAEM, which appears in December and shifts eastward through February. IOD further modulates precipitation by inducing changes in total precipitation, event frequency, and wet spell duration. The strength of the observed teleconnection is primarily significant in December. Additionally, we observe a reduction in cyclone activity in December over the East Atlantic and Western Mediterranean. These changes in cyclone track density are primarily driven by variations in the Eady Growth Rate, which are linked to enhanced vertical wind shear associated with a strengthened meridional temperature gradient over the NAEM. The results underscore a significant remote impact of the IOD on early winter hydro‐climate variability over the NAEM region, offering a potential value for improving sub‐seasonal to seasonal prediction.

Abstract:

While it is widely believed that the intense rainfall in summer 2022 over Pakistan was substantially exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change1, 2, climate models struggled to confirm this3, 4. Using a high-resolution operational seasonal forecasting system that successfully predicted the extreme wet conditions, we perform counterfactual experiments simulating pre-industrial and future conditions. Both experiments also exhibit strong anomalous rainfall, indicating a limited role of CO2-induced forcing. We attribute 10% of the total rainfall to historical increases in CO2 and ocean temperature. However, further increases in the future suggest a weak mean precipitation reduction but with increased variability. By decomposing rainfall and large-scale circulation into CO2 and SST-related signals, we illustrate a tendency for these signals to compensate each other in future scenarios. This suggests that historical CO2 impacts may not reliably predict future responses. Accurately capturing local dynamics is therefore essential for regional climate adaptation planning and for informing loss and damage discussions.