Climate dynamics

Abstract:

Simulations of frigid Neoproterozoic climates have not considered the tendency of thick layers of floating marine ice to deform and spread laterally. We have constructed a simple model of the production and flow of marine ice on a planetary scale, and determined ice thickness and flow in two situations: when the ocean is globally ice‐covered (“hard snowball”) and when the tropical waters remain open (“soft snowball”). In both cases, ice flow strongly affects the distribution of marine ice. Flowing ice probably carries enough latent heat and freshwater to significantly affect the transition into a Snowball Earth climate. We speculate that flowing marine ice, rather than continental ice sheets, may be the erosive agent that created some Neoproterozoic glacial deposits.

Abstract:

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.