Climate dynamics

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The Warming Papers The Scientific Foundation for the Climate Change Forecast

John Wiley & Sons, 2013

Authors:

David Archer, Raymond Pierrehumbert

Abstract:

Global warming is arguably the defining scientific issue of modern times, but it is not widely appreciated that the ... together the classic scientific papers that are the scientific foundation for the forecast of global warming and its consequences.

Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics European Geosciences Union (2013)

Authors:

I Ermolli, K Matthes, T Dudok de Wit, NA Krivova, K Tourpali, M Weber, YC Unruh, L Gray, U Langematz, P Pilewskie, others
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Improvements in the stratospheric transport achieved by a chemistry transport model with ECMWF (re)analyses: identifying effects and remaining challenges

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley 139:672 (2013) 654-673

Authors:

BM Monge‐Sanz, MP Chipperfield, DP Dee, AJ Simmons, SM Uppala
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Strange news from other stars

Nature Geoscience Springer Nature 6:2 (2013) 81-83
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A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability

Geophysical Research Letters 40:2 (2013) 434-439

Authors:

AA Scaife, S Ineson, JR Knight, L Gray, K Kodera, DM Smith

Abstract:

Variability in solar irradiance has been connected to changes in surface climate in the North Atlantic through both observational and climate modelling studies which suggest a response in the atmospheric circulation that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation or its hemispheric equivalent the Arctic Oscillation. It has also been noted that this response appears to follow the changes in solar irradiance by a few years, depending on the exact indicator of solar variability. Here we propose and test a mechanism for this lag based on the known impact of atmospheric circulation on the Atlantic Ocean, the extended memory of ocean heat content anomalies, and their subsequent feedback onto the atmosphere. We use results from climate model experiments to develop a simple model for the relationship between solar variability and North Atlantic climate. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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