Earth Observation Data Group

Abstract:

In this paper we describe SEAS5, ECMWF's fifth generation seasonal forecast system, which became operational in November 2017. Compared to its predecessor, System 4, SEAS5 is a substantially changed forecast system. It includes upgraded versions of the atmosphere and ocean models at higher resolutions, and adds a prognostic sea-ice model. Here, we describe the configuration of SEAS5 and summarise the most noticeable results from a set of diagnostics including biases, variability, teleconnections and forecast skill.

An important improvement in SEAS5 is the reduction of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias, which is accompanied by a more realistic El Niño amplitude and an improvement in El Niño prediction skill over the central-west Pacific. Improvements in 2 m temperature skill are also clear over the tropical Pacific. Sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the northern extratropics change due to increased ocean resolution, especially in regions associated with western boundary currents. The increased ocean resolution exposes a new problem in the northwest Atlantic, where SEAS5 fails to capture decadal variability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, resulting in a degradation of DJF 2 m temperature prediction skill in this region. The prognostic sea-ice model improves seasonal predictions of sea-ice cover, although some regions and seasons suffer from biases introduced by employing a fully dynamical model rather than the simple, empirical scheme used in System 4. There are also improvements in 2 m temperature skill in the vicinity of the Arctic sea-ice edge. Cold temperature biases in the troposphere improve, but increase at the tropopause. Biases in the extratropical jets are larger than in System 4: extratropical jets are too strong, and displaced northwards in JJA. In summary, development and added complexity since System 4 has ensured that SEAS5 is a state-of-The-Art seasonal forecast system which continues to display a particular strength in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction.

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Abstract:

The most widely used satellite products are averages of data onto a regular spatiotemporal grid, known as Level 3 data. Some atmospheric variables can vary rapidly in response to changing conditions. Over the scales of Level 3 averaging, the combination of observations across different conditions may result in data that is not normally distributed, such that a simple mean is not representative. The problem is illustrated by the distribution of aerosol optical depth from different sensors and algorithms. A simple statistical technique is proposed to better convey the diversity of satellite observations to users whereby a multimodal log-normal distribution is fit to the distribution of data observed within each grid cell. Allowing multiple modes within each cell is shown to improve the agreement between satellite products by highlighting regions of significant variability and isolating systematic differences between instruments.

Abstract:

Radiative transfer models used in remote sensing and hazard assessment of volcanic ash require knowledge of ash optical parameters. Here, we characterise the bulk and glass compositions of a representative suite of volcanic ash samples with known complex refractive indices (n + ik: where n is the real and k is the imaginary part). Using a linear regression model, we develop a new parameterization allowing the complex refractive index of volcanic ash to be estimated from ash SiO2 content or ratio of non-bridging oxygens to tetrahedrally-coordinated cations (NBO/T). At visible wavelengths, n correlates better with bulk than glass composition (both SiO2 and NBO/T), and k correlates better with SiO2 content than NBO/T. Over a broader spectral range (0.4–19 μm), bulk correlates better than glass composition, and NBO/T generally correlates better than SiO2 content for both parts of the refractive index. In order to understand the impacts of our new parameterization on satellite retrievals, we compared IASI satellite (wavelengths 3.62–15.5 μm) mass loading retrievals using our new approach with retrievals that assumed a generic (Eyjafjallajökull) ash refractive index. There are significant differences in mass loading using our calculated indices specific to ash type rather than a generic index. Where mass loadings increase, there is often improvement in retrieval quality (corresponding to cost function decrease). This new parameterization of refractive index variation with ash composition will help to improve remote sensing retrievals for the rapid identification of ash and quantitative analysis of mass loadings from satellite data on operational timescales.