Prof Suzanne Aigrain

Abstract:

The past two decades have seen a major expansion in the availability, size, and precision of time-domain data sets in astronomy. Owing to their unique combination of flexibility, mathematical simplicity, and comparative robustness, Gaussian processes (GPs) have emerged recently as the solution of choice to model stochastic signals in such data sets. In this review, we provide a brief introduction to the emergence of GPs in astronomy, present the underlying mathematical theory, and give practical advice considering the key modeling choices involved in GP regression. We then review applications of GPs to time-domain data sets in the astrophysical literature so far, from exoplanets to active galactic nuclei, showcasing the power and flexibility of the method. We provide worked examples using simulated data, with links to the source code; discuss the problem of computational cost and scalability; and give a snapshot of the current ecosystem of open source GP software packages. In summary:
▪ GP regression is a conceptually simple but statistically principled and powerful tool for the analysis of astronomical time series.
▪ It is already widely used in some subfields, such as exoplanets, and gaining traction in many others, such as optical transients.
▪ Driven by further algorithmic and conceptual advances, we expect that GPs will continue to be an important tool for robust and interpretable time domain astronomy for many years to come.

Abstract:

Detecting planetary signatures in radial velocity time-series of young stars is challenging due to their inherently strong stellar activity. However, it is possible to learn information about the properties of the stellar signal by using activity indicators measured from the same stellar spectra used to extract radial velocities. In this manuscript, we present a reanalysis of spectroscopic High Accuracy Radial Velocity Planet Searcher data of the young star K2-233, which hosts three transiting planets. We perform a multidimensional Gaussian process regression on the radial velocity and the activity indicators to characterize the planetary Doppler signals. We demonstrate, for the first time on a real data set, that the use of a multidimensional Gaussian process can boost the precision with which we measure the planetary signals compared to a one-dimensional Gaussian process applied to the radial velocities alone. We measure the semi-amplitudes of K2-233 b, c, and d as 1.31+0.81−0.74, 1.81+0.71−0.67, and 2.72+0.66−0.70 m s−1, which translate into planetary masses of 2.4+1.5−1.3, 4.6+1.8−1.7, and 10.3+2.4−2.6 M⊕, respectively. These new mass measurements make K2-233 d a valuable target for transmission spectroscopy observations with JWST. K2-233 is the only young system with two detected inner planets below the radius valley and a third outer planet above it. This makes it an excellent target to perform comparative studies, to inform our theories of planet evolution, formation, migration, and atmospheric evolution.