Towards objective probabalistic climate forecasting.
Nature 419:6903 (2002) 228
Climate of the twentieth century: Detection of change and attribution of causes
Weather Wiley 57:8 (2002) 296-303
Origins of Model–Data Discrepancies in Optimal Fingerprinting
Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society 15:11 (2002) 1348-1356
The role of stratospheric resolution in simulating the Arctic Oscillation response to greenhouse gases
Geophysical Research Letters 29:10 (2002) 138-1-138-4
Abstract:
The Arctic Oscillation index has increased significantly over the past forty years, and such an increase has been simulated in response to greenhouse gas increases in several climate models. However, it has been suggested that an atmospheric model with an upper boundary in the upper stratosphere or mesosphere is required to simulate a realistic response, and that predictions made with standard climate models are hence unreliable. Here we show that a climate model with a 30-km upper boundary shows no increase in its surface Arctic Oscillation response to doubled carbon dioxide when its upper boundary is raised to 80 km. Neither model version shows a significant Arctic Oscillation response to stratospheric ozone depletion.ADVANCED SPECTRAL METHODS FOR CLIMATIC TIME SERIES
Reviews of Geophysics American Geophysical Union (AGU) 40:1 (2002) 3-1-3-41