Professor Rob Fender

Abstract:

Abstract We present the most complete modelling of the MOJAVE 1.5 Jansky Quarter Century active galactic nuclei (AGN) jet population, using likelihood-free simulation-based inference. Due to the complex impact of a flux-limit on observed AGN data sets, careful modelling of the parent population is required. In particular, when observing and fitting to multiple data distributions likelihoods become non-intuitive. Parameter degeneracies further complicate the problem and make it suitable for likelihood-free, simulation-based inference. This method relies on a normalising flow learning the likelihood surface or posteriors directly. We extensively validate the flow to show that previous parameter estimates for the AGN jet speed distributions underestimated parameter errors significantly and do not capture the non-gaussianity of the parameter posteriors. The new results enable a better statistical comparison to other AGN population studies, but also a more accurate comparison of supermassive black hole jets with their lower mass counterparts, X-ray binaries (XRB). We find that the AGN follow a Lorentz factor distribution of the shape N(Γ)∝Γb with $b= -1.32_{-0.19}^{+0.20}$. This slope is consistent with the XRB Lorentz factor distribution at 2σ. Simulation-based inference as a method is generally well-suited to many astrophysical problems, and this paper shows the convenient applicability of this methodology to parent population studies of jetted AGN with multiple observables specifically.

Abstract:

Abstract We present a comprehensive multi-wavelength study of the black hole X-ray binary 4U 1543–475 during its 2021 outburst, focusing on radio flaring episodes that are commonly interpreted as signatures of episodic jet production and are embedded within states when the X-ray emission was dominated by an accretion disk component. The radio monitoring reveals at least two discrete flares that coincide with periods of enhanced Comptonized X-ray emission. Broadband spectral modelling shows a significant decrease in the reflection-to-disk flux ratio (by a factor of ~3 − 4) during these episodes, consistent with a temporary change in the geometry of the inner accretion flow, although the data do not allow the causal sequence to be firmly established. Optical photometry exhibits variability that broadly tracks the reflection fraction, consistent with changes in the illuminating component. The accompanying spectral hardening indicates that the radio flares were associated with short-lived excursions toward a ”harder” state, departing from the soft state. X-ray timing analysis suggests that the radio flares may be associated with changes in the fractional rms variability; however, no consistent or unified pattern can be firmly established across different events. These results provide a multi-wavelength observational example of radio flaring activity in a black hole binary and highlight the complex interplay between accretion flow geometry, coronal emission, and jet-related phenomena.