Professor Roy Grainger

Abstract:

The Arctic is experiencing heightened precipitation, affected by aerosols impacting rainfall and snowfall. However, sparse aerosol observations in the central Arctic cryosphere contribute to uncertainties in simulating aerosol-precipitation two-way interaction. This study examines aerosol-precipitation co-variation in various climate models during the Arctic spring and summer seasons from 2003 to 2011, leveraging satellite-based aerosol data and various CMIP6 climate models. Findings reveal significant spatio-temporal biases between models and observations. Snowfall dominance occurs in models where total AOD surpasses the observation by 121% (57–186%, confidence interval), intensifying simulated snowfall by two times compared to rainfall during summer. Consequently, climate models tend to underestimate central Arctic rainfall to the total precipitation ratio, suggesting a positive bias towards snowfall dominance. This highlights the importance of constraining total AOD and associated aerosol schemes in climate models using satellite measurements, which potentially could lead to a substantial reduction in snowfall contribution to the total precipitation ratio in the central Arctic, contrary to current multi-model simulations across various spatiotemporal scales.

Abstract:

Analysis of thermal infrared satellite measurements of umbrella clouds generated by volcanic eruptions suggests that asymptotic gravity current models of the temporal (C) radial (A) spreading (A ⇠ C 5 , 5 < 1) of the umbrella-shaped intrusion do not adequately explain the observations. Umbrella clouds from 13 volcanic eruptions are studied using satellite data that have spatial resolutions of ⇠4–25 km2 and temporal resolutions of 1–60 minutes. The umbrella cloud morphology is evaluated using 15 digital image processing tools in a Lagrangian frame of reference. At the onset of neutral buoyancy, the radial spreading is better explained by a stronger dependence on time of A ⇠ C, rather than C 2/3, C 3/4 or C 2/9. This flow regime exists on the order of minutes and has not been observed previously in satellite data. This may be of significance as it provides a means to rapidly (within the first 2-3 observations) determine the volumetric eruption rate. A hyperbolic tangent model, A ⇠ tanh (C) is presented that matches the entire radial spreading time history and has a conserved torus-shaped volume in which the intrusion depth is 20 proportional to sech (C). This model also predicts the the observed radial velocities. The data and the model estimates of the volumetric flow rate for the 15 January 2022 Hunga eruption are found to be 3.6–5 x 1011 m3s1, the largest ever measured.

Abstract:

Extreme biomass burning (BB) events, such as those seen during the 2019-2020 Australian bushfire season, are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change. Ground-based observations of these events can provide useful information on the macro-and micro-physical properties of the plumes, but these observations are sparse, especially in regions which are at risk of intense bushfire events. Satellite observations of extreme BB events provide a unique perspective, with the newest generation of geostationary imagers, such as the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), observing entire continents at moderate spatial and high temporal resolution. However, current passive satellite retrieval methods struggle to capture the high values of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) seen during these BB events. Accurate retrievals are necessary for global and regional studies of shortwave radiation, air quality modelling and numerical weather prediction. To address these issues, the Optimal Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) algorithm has used AHI data to measure extreme BB plumes from the 2019-2020 Australian bushfire season. The sensitivity of the retrieval to the assumed optical properties of BB plumes is explored by comparing retrieved AOT with AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level-1.5 data over the AERONET site at Tumbarumba, New South Wales, between 1 December 2019 at 00:00UTC and 3 January 2020 at 00:00UTC. The study shows that for AOT values >2, the sensitivity to the assumed optical properties is substantial. The ORAC retrievals and AERONET data are compared against the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Aerosol Retrieval Product (ARP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue over land, MODIS MAIAC, Sentinel-3 SYN and VIIRS Deep Blue products. The comparison shows the ORAC retrieval significantly improves coverage of optically thick plumes relative to the JAXA ARP, with approximately twice as many pixels retrieved and peak retrieved AOT values 1.4 times higher than the JAXA ARP. The ORAC retrievals have accuracy scores of 0.742-0.744 compared to the values of 0.718-0.833 for the polar-orbiting satellite products, despite successfully retrieving approximately 28 times as many pixels over the study period as the most successful polar-orbiting satellite product. The AHI and MODIS satellite products are compared for three case studies covering a range of BB plumes over Australia. The results show good agreement between all products for plumes with AOT values ≤2. For extreme BB plumes, the ORAC retrieval finds values of AOT >15, significantly higher than those seen in events classified as extreme by previous studies, although with high uncertainty. A combination of hard limits in the retrieval algorithms and misclassification of BB plumes as cloud prevents the JAXA and MODIS products from returning AOT values significantly greater than 5.

Abstract:

Atmospheric aerosols have pronounced effects on climate at both regional and global scales, but the magnitude of these effects is subject to considerable uncertainties. A major contributor to these uncertainties is an incomplete understanding of the vertical structure of aerosol, largely due to observational limitations. Spaceborne lidars can directly observe the vertical distribution of aerosols globally and are increasingly used in atmospheric aerosol remote sensing. As the first spaceborne high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL), the Atmospheric LAser Doppler INstrument (ALADIN) on board the Aeolus satellite was operational from 2018 to 2023. ALADIN data can be used to estimate aerosol extinction and co-polar backscatter coefficients separately without an assumption of the lidar ratio. This study assesses the performance of ALADIN's aerosol retrieval capabilities by comparing them with Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements. A statistical analysis of retrievals from both instruments during the June 2020 Saharan dust event indicates consistency between the observed backscatter and extinction coefficients. During this extreme dust event, CALIOP-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) exhibited large discrepancies with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua measurements. Using collocated ALADIN observations to revise the dust lidar ratio to 63.5 sr, AODs retrieved from CALIOP are increased by 46 %, improving the comparison with MODIS data. The combination of measurements from ALADIN and CALIOP can enhance the tracking of aerosols' vertical transport. This study demonstrates the potential for spaceborne HSRL to retrieve aerosol optical properties. It highlights the benefits of spaceborne HSRL in directly obtaining the lidar ratio, significantly reducing uncertainties in extinction retrievals.