Professor Roy Grainger

Abstract:

Volcanic eruptions eject large amounts of ash and trace gases such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the atmosphere. A significant difficulty in mitigating the impact of volcanic SO2 clouds on air traffic safety is that these gas emissions can be rapidly transported over long distances. The use of space-borne instruments enables the global monitoring of volcanic SO2 emissions in an economical and risk-free manner. Within the European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinel-5p+ Innovation project, the S5P SO2 layer height (S5P+I: SO2LH) activities led to the improvements of the retrieval algorithm and generation of the corresponding near real-time S5P SO2 LH products. These are currently operationally provided, in near real-time, by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) within the framework of the Innovative Products for Analyses of Atmospheric Composition (INPULS) project. The main aim of this paper is to present its extensive verification, accomplished within the S5P+I: SO2LH project, over major recent volcanic eruptions, against collocated space-borne measurements from the IASI/Metop and CALIOP/CALIPSO instruments as well as assess its impact on the forecasts provided by the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). The mean difference between S5P and IASI observations for the Raikoke 2019, the Nishinoshima 2020 and the La Soufrière-St Vincent 2021 eruptive periods is ∼ 0.5 ± 3 km, while for the Taal 2020 eruption, a larger difference was found, between 3 ± 3 km and 4 ± 3 km. The comparison of the daily mean SO2 LH further demonstrates the capabilities of this near real-time product, with slopes between 0.8 and 1 and correlation coefficients ranging between 0.6 and 0.8. Comparisons between the S5P SO2 LH and the CALIOP/CALIPSO ash plumes revealed an expected bias at −2.5 ± 2 km, considering that the injected SO2 and ash plume locations do not always coincide over an eruption. Furthermore, the CAMS assimilation of the S5P SO2 LH product led to much improved model output against the non-assimilated IASI LH, with a mean difference of 1.5 ± 2 km, compared to the original CAMS analysis, and improved the geographical spread of the Raikoke volcanic plume following the eruptive days.

Abstract:

Volcanic eruptions eject large amounts of ash and trace gases such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the atmosphere. A significant difficulty in mitigating the impact of volcanic SO2 clouds on air traffic safety is that these gas emissions can be rapidly transported over long distances. The use of space-borne instruments enables the global monitoring of volcanic SO2 emissions in an economical and risk-free manner. Within the European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinel-5p+ Innovation project, the S5P SO2 layer height (S5P+I: SO2LH) activities led to the improvements of the retrieval algorithm and generation of the corresponding near real-time S5P SO2 LH products. These are currently operationally provided, in near real-time, by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) within the framework of the Innovative Products for Analyses of Atmospheric Composition (INPULS) project. The main aim of this paper is to present its extensive verification, accomplished within the S5P+I: SO2LH project, over major recent volcanic eruptions, against collocated space-borne measurements from the IASI/Metop and CALIOP/CALIPSO instruments as well as assess its impact on the forecasts provided by the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). The mean difference between S5P and IASI observations for the Raikoke 2019, the Nishinoshima 2020 and the La Soufrière-St Vincent 2021 eruptive periods is g-1/4 0.5 ± 3 km, while for the Taal 2020 eruption, a larger difference was found, between 3 ± 3 km and 4 ± 3 km. The comparison of the daily mean SO2 LH further demonstrates the capabilities of this near real-time product, with slopes between 0.8 and 1 and correlation coefficients ranging between 0.6 and 0.8. Comparisons between the S5P SO2 LH and the CALIOP/CALIPSO ash plumes revealed an expected bias at -2.5 ± 2 km, considering that the injected SO2 and ash plume locations do not always coincide over an eruption. Furthermore, the CAMS assimilation of the S5P SO2 LH product led to much improved model output against the non-assimilated IASI LH, with a mean difference of 1.5 ± 2 km, compared to the original CAMS analysis, and improved the geographical spread of the Raikoke volcanic plume following the eruptive days.

Abstract:

After the eruption of volcanoes around the world, monitoring of the dispersion of ash in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. In this work we present a novel method, tailored for Eyjafjallajökull ash but applicable to other eruptions as well, that uses thermal observations of the SEVIRI imager aboard the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite to detect ash clouds and determine their mass column concentration and top height during the day and night. This approach requires the compilation of an extensive data set of synthetic SEVIRI observations to train an artificial neural network. This is done by means of the RTSIM tool that combines atmospheric, surface and ash properties and runs automatically a large number of radiative transfer calculations for the entire SEVIRI disk. The resulting algorithm is called “VADUGS” (Volcanic Ash Detection Using Geostationary Satellites) and has been evaluated against independent radiative transfer simulations. VADUGS detects ash-contaminated pixels with a probability of detection of 0.84 and a false-alarm rate of 0.05. Ash column concentrations are provided by VADUGS with correlations up to 0.5, a scatter up to 0.6 g m−2 for concentrations smaller than 2.0 g m−2 and small overestimations in the range 5 %–50 % for moderate viewing angles 35–65∘, but up to 300 % for satellite viewing zenith angles close to 90 or 0∘. Ash top heights are mainly underestimated, with the smallest underestimation of −9 % for viewing zenith angles between 40 and 50∘. Absolute errors are smaller than 70 % and with high correlation coefficients of up to 0.7 for ash clouds with high mass column concentrations. A comparison with spaceborne lidar observations by CALIPSO/CALIOP confirms these results: For six overpasses over the ash cloud from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in June 2011, VADUGS shows similar features as the corresponding lidar data, with a correlation coefficient of 0.49 and an overestimation of ash column concentration by 55 %, although still in the range of uncertainty of CALIOP. A comparison with another ash algorithm shows that both retrievals provide plausible detection results, with VADUGS being able to detect ash further away from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, but sometimes missing the thick ash clouds close to the vent. VADUGS is run operationally at the German Weather Service and this application is also presented.

Abstract:

Sulfuric acid is shown to form a core–shell particle on a micron-sized, optically-trapped spherical silica bead. The refractive indices of the silica and sulfuric acid, along with the shell thickness and bead radius were determined by reproducing Mie scattered optical white light as a function of wavelength in Mie spectroscopy. Micron-sized silica aerosols (silica beads were used as a proxy for atmospheric silica minerals) were levitated in a mist of sulfuric acid particles; continuous collection of Mie spectra throughout the collision of sulfuric acid aerosols with the optically trapped silica aerosol demonstrated that the resulting aerosol particle had a core–shell morphology. Contrastingly, the collision of aqueous sulfuric acid aerosols with optically trapped polystyrene aerosol resulted in a partially coated system. The light scattering from the optically levitated aerosols was successfully modelled to determine the diameter of the core aerosol (±0.003 μm), the shell thickness (±0.0003 μm) and the refractive index (±0.007). The experiment demonstrated that the presence of a thin film rapidly changed the light scattering of the original aerosol. When a 1.964 μm diameter silica aerosol was covered with a film of sulfuric acid 0.287 μm thick, the wavelength dependent Mie peak positions resembled sulfuric acid. Thus mineral aerosol advected into the stratosphere would likely be coated with sulfuric acid, with a core–shell morphology, and its light scattering properties would be effectively indistinguishable from a homogenous sulfuric acid aerosol if the film thickness was greater than a few 100 s of nm for UV-visible wavelengths.

Abstract:

Volcanic eruptions can cause significant disruption to society, and numerical models are crucial for forecasting the dispersion of erupted material. Here we assess the skill and limitations of the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) in simulating the dispersion of the sulfur dioxide (SO2) cloud from the 21–22 June 2019 eruption of the Raikoke volcano (48.3∘ N, 153.2∘ E). The eruption emitted around 1.5±0.2 Tg of SO2, which represents the largest volcanic emission of SO2 into the stratosphere since the 2011 Nabro eruption. We simulate the temporal evolution of the volcanic SO2 cloud across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and compare our model simulations to high-resolution SO2 measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite SO2 products. We show that NAME accurately simulates the observed location and horizontal extent of the SO2 cloud during the first 2–3 weeks after the eruption but is unable, in its standard configuration, to capture the extent and precise location of the highest magnitude vertical column density (VCD) regions within the observed volcanic cloud. Using the structure–amplitude–location (SAL) score and the fractional skill score (FSS) as metrics for model skill, NAME shows skill in simulating the horizontal extent of the cloud for 12–17 d after the eruption where VCDs of SO2 (in Dobson units, DU) are above 1 DU. For SO2 VCDs above 20 DU, which are predominantly observed as small-scale features within the SO2 cloud, the model shows skill on the order of 2–4 d only. The lower skill for these high-SO2-VCD regions is partly explained by the model-simulated SO2 cloud in NAME being too diffuse compared to TROPOMI retrievals. Reducing the standard horizontal diffusion parameters used in NAME by a factor of 4 results in a slightly increased model skill during the first 5 d of the simulation, but on longer timescales the simulated SO2 cloud remains too diffuse when compared to TROPOMI measurements. The skill of NAME to simulate high SO2 VCDs and the temporal evolution of the NH-mean SO2 mass burden is dominated by the fraction of SO2 mass emitted into the lower stratosphere, which is uncertain for the 2019 Raikoke eruption. When emitting 0.9–1.1 Tg of SO2 into the lower stratosphere (11–18 km) and 0.4–0.7 Tg into the upper troposphere (8–11 km), the NAME simulations show a similar peak in SO2 mass burden to that derived from TROPOMI (1.4–1.6 Tg of SO2) with an average SO2 e-folding time of 14–15 d in the NH. Our work illustrates how the synergy between high-resolution satellite retrievals and dispersion models can identify potential limitations of dispersion models like NAME, which will ultimately help to improve dispersion modelling efforts of volcanic SO2 clouds.