Professor Roy Grainger

Abstract:

Airborne volcanic ash poses a significant danger to aircraft, but is difficult to quantify accurately using satellite data, while sulphur dioxide is much easier to detect accurately, but is much less of a direct hazard to aviation. This paper investigates the reliability of using SO2 as a proxy for the location of volcanic ash, using an SO2 retrieval from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and ash detections from IASI and the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR). Using a numerical “missed ash fraction” applied to the eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 and Puyehue‐Cordón Caulle in 2011 reveals that the SO2 flag typically misses ∼30% of the detectable ash. Furthermore, the missed ash fraction is found to be highly variable, both between the two eruptions and over the course of each eruption, with values of over 80% found on some days. The detection threshold of the AATSR ash flag is also investigated using radiative transfer calculations, allowing the threshold of the IASI flag to be inferred, and these are related to the ash contamination levels.

Abstract:

Meteorological covariation may drive relationships between aerosol and cloud-related properties. It is important to account for the meteorological contribution to observed cloud–aerosol relationships in order to improve understanding of aerosol–cloud–climate interactions. A new method of investigating the contribution of meteorological covariation to observed cloud–aerosol relationships is introduced. Other studies have investigated the contribution of local meteorology to cloud–aerosol relationships. In this paper, a complimentary large-scale view is presented. Extratropical cyclones have been previously shown to affect satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth (τ), due to en- hanced emission of sea salt and sea surface brightness artefacts in regions of higher wind speed. Extratropical cyclones have also been shown to affect cloud-related properties such as cloud fraction (fc) and cloud top temperature (Ttop). Therefore, it seems plausible to hypothesise that extratropical cyclones may drive relationships between cloud-related properties and τ. In this paper, a description of extratropical cyclones, based on the relative vorticity of the storm and position in the storm domain, is used to analyse MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieved τ, fc and Ttop data. This storm-centric description is capable of explaining fc–τrelationships, although the relationships explained represent only a small component of the relationships observed in the MODIS data. This storm-centric approach produces no statistically robust explanation for Ttop–τ relationships, suggesting that large-scale synoptic conditions in the mid-latitudes do not drive Ttop–τ relationships. The primary causes for observed cloud–aerosol relationships are likely to be other factors such as retrieval errors, local meteorology or aerosol–cloud interactions.

Abstract:

Using the GlobAEROSOL-AATSR dataset, estimates of the instantaneous, clear-sky, direct aerosol radiative effect and radiative forcing have been produced for the year 2006. Aerosol Robotic Network sun-photometer measurements have been used to characterise the random and systematic error in the GlobAEROSOL product for 22 regions covering the globe. Representative aerosol properties for each region were derived from the results of a wide range of literature sources and, along with the de-biased GlobAEROSOL AODs, were used to drive an offline version of the Met Office unified model radiation scheme. In addition to the mean AOD, best-estimate run of the radiation scheme, a range of additional calculations were done to propagate uncertainty estimates in the AOD, optical properties, surface albedo and errors due to the temporal and spatial averaging of the AOD fields. This analysis produced monthly, regional estimates of the clear-sky aerosol radiative effect and its uncertainty, which were combined to produce annual, global mean values of (-6.7 ± 3.9) W m-2 at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and (-12 ± 6) W m-2 at the surface. These results were then used to give estimates of regional, clear-sky aerosol direct radiative forcing, using modelled pre-industrial AOD fields for the year 1750 calculated for the AEROCOM PRE experiment. However, as it was not possible to quantify the uncertainty in the pre-industrial aerosol loading, these figures can only be taken as indicative and their uncertainties as lower bounds on the likely errors. Although the uncertainty on aerosol radiative effect presented here is considerably larger than most previous estimates, the explicit inclusion of the major sources of error in the calculations suggest that they are closer to the true constraint on this figure from similar methodologies, and point to the need for more, improved estimates of both global aerosol loading and aerosol optical properties. © 2013 Author(s).