An Earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91:10 (2010) 1377-1388
Abstract:
Some scientists have proposed the Earth-System Prediction Initiative (EPI) at the 2007 GEO Summit in Cape Town, South Africa. EPI will draw upon coordination between international programs for Earth system observations, prediction, and warning, such as the WCRP, WWRP, GCOS, and hence contribute to GEO and the GEOSS. It will link with international organizations, such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), UNEP, WMO, and World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed initiative will provide high-resolution climate models that capture the properties of regional high-impact weather events, such as tropical cyclones, heat wave, and sand and dust storms associated within multi-decadal climate projections of climate variability and change. Unprecedented international collaboration and goodwill are necessary for the success of EPI.Model uncertainty in seasonal to decadal forecasting - insight from the ENSEMBLES project.
ECMWF Newsletter ECMWF 122 (2010) 21-26
Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 138:6 (2010) 2434-2446
EXTENDED-RANGE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GANGES AND BRAHMAPUTRA FLOODS IN BANGLADESH
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 91:11 (2010) 1493-1514
Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: Implications for long-range predictions
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 136:652 (2010) 1655-1664