Prof Christopher Ramsey

Abstract:

Anthropogenically-driven climate warming and land use change are the main causes of an ongoing decrease in global biodiversity. It is unclear how ecosystems, particularly freshwater habitats, will respond to such continuous and potentially intensifying disruptions. Here we analyse how different components of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems responded to natural climate change during the Lateglacial. By applying a range of analytical techniques (sedimentology, palaeoecology, geochemistry) to the well-dated sediment archive from Lake Hämelsee (Germany), we show evidence for vegetation development, landscape dynamics and aquatic ecosystem change typical for northwest Europe during the Lateglacial. By particularly focussing on periods of abrupt climate change, we determine the timing and duration of changes in biodiversity in response to external forcing. We show that onsets of changes in biodiversity indicators (e.g. diatom composition, Pediastrum concentrations) lag changes in environmental records (e.g. loss-on-ignition) by a few decades, particularly at the Allerød/Younger Dryas transition. Most biodiversity indicators showed transition times of 10–50 years, whereas environmental records typically showed a 50–100 year long transition. In some cases, transition times observed for the compositional turnover or productivity records were up to 185 years, which could have been the result of the combined effects of direct (e.g. climate) and indirect (e.g. lake stratification) drivers of ecosystem change. Our results show differences in timing and duration of biodiversity responses to external disturbances, suggesting that a multi-decadal view needs to be taken when designing effective conservation management of freshwater ecosystems under current global warming.

Abstract:

Understanding the temporal and spatial environmental response to past climate change during the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition (LGIT, 16-8 ka) across Europe relies on precise chronologies for palaeoenvironmental records. Tephra layers (volcanic ash) are a powerful chronological tool to synchronise disparate records across the continent. Yet, some regions remain overlooked in terms of cryptotephra investigations. Building on earlier work at the same sites, we present the first complete LGIT high-resolution cryptotephra investigation of two lake records in the Carpathian Mountains in Romania, Lake Brazi and Lake Lia. Numerous volcanic glass shards have been recognised as originating from various volcanic regions, including: Iceland (Katla, Askja, and Torfajokull), Italy (Campi Flegrei, Ischia, Lipari, and Pantelleria), and central Anatolia (Acigol and Ericyes). In total, four distinct tephra horizons have now been identified in these records: 1) an LGIT Lipari tephra (11,515–12,885 cal BP, 95.4% range); 2) Askja-S (11,070–10,720 cal BP, 95.4% range); 3) an Early Holocene Lipari tephra,(12,590–10,845 cal BP, 95.4% range) and; 4) an Early Holocene Ischia tephra (11,120–10,740 cal BP, 95.4% range). The use of trace element analysis on selected cryptotephra layers provided additional important information in identifying volcanic source and facilitating correlations. These tephra layers, along with numerous other discrete cryptotephra layers, offer promise as significant future isochrons for comprehending the spatial and temporal fluctuations in past climate change throughout Europe and the Mediterranean area. This research has emphasized the significance of the Carpathian region in expanding the European and Mediterranean tephra lattice and establishing it as a keystone area within the framework.

Abstract:

Societies of the later Early to Middle Bronze Age (ca. 2200–1600 BC) in the Carpathian Basin exhibited complex, hierarchical and regionally influential socio-political organisation that came to an abrupt end in the 16^th century BC. Considered a collapse by some, this change was characterised by abandonment of virtually all central places / nodes in settlement networks. Until recently, the complexity that characterised the period was believed to have substantially diminished alongside depopulation. This model was reinforced by a combination of the loss of established external networks and low-resolution knowledge of where and how people lived in the first stages of the Late Bronze Age (between 1600 and 1200 BC). We contest the idea of a diminished Late Bronze Age and argue that a fully opposite trajectory can be identified–increased scale, complexity and density in settlement systems and intensification of long-distance networks. We present results of a settlement survey in the southern Pannonian Plain using remote and pedestrian prospection, augmented by small-scale excavations. New absolute dates are used to define the occupational history of sites dating primarily between 1500–1200 BC. We argue that climate change played a substantial role in in the transformation of settlement networks, creating a particular ecological niche enabling societies to thrive. New and specific forms of landscape exploitation developed that were characterised by proximity to wetlands and minor watercourses. In this context, the largest monuments of Bronze Age Europe were created and inhabited. In considering the origins and demise of these megasites and related settlements, we provide a new model for Late Bronze Age societies in the Carpathian Basin and their regional relevance.

Abstract:

The Marine20 radiocarbon (14C) age calibration curve, and all earlier marine 14C calibration curves from the IntCal group, must be used extremely cautiously for the calibration of marine 14C samples from polar regions (outside ∼ 40ºS–40ºN) during glacial periods. Calibrating polar 14C marine samples from glacial periods against any Marine calibration curve (Marine20 or any earlier product) using an estimate of ΔR, the regional 14C depletion adjustment, that has been obtained from samples in the recent (non-glacial) past is likely to lead to bias and overconfidence in the calibrated age. We propose an approach to calibration that aims to address this by accounting for the possibility of additional, localized, glacial 14C depletion in polar oceans. We suggest, for a specific polar location, bounds on the value of ΔR20(θ) during a glacial period. The lower bound ΔR Hol 20 may be based on 14C samples from the recent non-glacial (Holocene) past and corresponds to a low-depletion glacial scenario. The upper bound, ΔR, representing a high-depletion scenario is found by increasing ΔR Hol 20 according to the latitude of the 14C sample to be calibrated. The suggested increases to obtain are based upon simulations of the Hamburg Large Scale Geostrophic Ocean General Circulation Model (LSG OGCM). Calibrating against the Marine20 curve using the upper and lower ΔR 20 bounds provide estimates of calibrated ages for glacial 14C samples in high- and low-depletion scenarios which should bracket the true calendar age of the sample. In some circumstances, users may be able to determine which depletion scenario is more appropriate using independent paleoclimatic or proxy evidence.

Abstract:

<jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title> <jats:p>The IntCal family of radiocarbon (<jats:sup>14</jats:sup>C) calibration curves is based on research spanning more than three decades. The IntCal group have collated the <jats:sup>14</jats:sup>C and calendar age data (mostly derived from primary publications with other types of data and meta-data) and, since 2010, made them available for other sorts of analysis through an open-access database. This has ensured transparency in terms of the data used in the construction of the ratified calibration curves. As the IntCal database expands, work is underway to facilitate best practice for new data submissions, make more of the associated metadata available in a structured form, and help those wishing to process the data with programming languages such as R, Python, and MATLAB. The data and metadata are complex because of the range of different types of archives. A restructured interface, based on the “IntChron” open-access data model, includes tools which allow the data to be plotted and compared without the need for export. The intention is to include complementary information which can be used alongside the main <jats:sup>14</jats:sup>C series to provide new insights into the global carbon cycle, as well as facilitating access to the data for other research applications. Overall, this work aims to streamline the generation of new calibration curves.</jats:p>