Kristian Strommen

Abstract:

The role of model resolution in simulating geophysical vortices with the characteristics of realistic Tropical Cyclones (TCs) is well established. The push for increasing resolution continues, with General Circulation Models (GCMs) starting to use sub-10km grid spacing. In the same context it has been suggested that the use of Stochastic Physics (SP) may act as a surrogate for high resolution, providing some of the benefits at a fraction of the cost. Either technique can reduce model uncertainty, and enhance reliability, by providing a more dynamic environment for initial synoptic disturbances to be spawned and to grow into TCs. We present results from a systematic comparison of the role of model resolution and SP in the simulation of TCs, using EC-Earth simulations from project Climate-SPHINX, in large ensemble mode, spanning five different resolutions. All tropical cyclonic systems, including TCs, were tracked explicitly. As in previous studies, the number of simulated TCs increases with the use of higher resolution, but SP further enhances TC frequencies by ≈ 30%, in a strikingly similar way. The use of SP is beneficial for removing systematic climate biases, albeit not consistently so for interannual variability; conversely, the use of SP improves the simulation of the seasonal cycle of TC frequency. An investigation of the mechanisms behind this response indicates that SP generates both higher TC (and TC seed) genesis rates, and more suitable environmental conditions, enabling a more efficient transition of TC seeds into TCs. These results were confirmed by the use of equivalent simulations with the HadGEM3-GC31 GCM.

Abstract:

Euro‐Atlantic regimes are typically identified using either the latitude of the North Atlantic jet or clustering algorithms in the phase space of 500‐hPa geopotential (Z500). However, while robust trimodality is visibly apparent in jet latitude indices, Z500 clusters require highly sensitive significance tests to distinguish them from autocorrelated noise. This leads to considerable decadal variability in regime patterns, confounding many potential applications. A clear‐cut choice of the optimal number of regimes is also hard to justify. We argue that the jet speed, a near‐Gaussian distribution projecting strongly onto the Z500 field, is the source of these difficulties. Once its influence is removed, the phase space becomes visibly non‐Gaussian, and clustering algorithms easily recover three regimes, closely corresponding to the jet latitude modes. Further analysis supports the existence of two additional blocking regimes, corresponding to a tilted and split jet. All five regimes are approximately stationary across the twentieth century.

Abstract:

Euro-Atlantic regimes are typically identified using either the latitude of the eddy-driven jet, or clustering algorithms in the phase space of 500hPa geopotential height (Z500). However, while robust trimodality is visibly apparent in jet latitude indices, Z500 clusters require highly sensitive significance tests to distinguish them from autocorrelated noise. As a result, even small shifts in the time-period considered can notably alter the diagnosed regimes. Fixing the optimal regime number is also hard to justify. We argue that the jet speed, a near-Gaussian distribution projecting strongly onto the Z500 field, is the source of this lack of robustness. Once its influence is removed, the Z500 phase space becomes visibly non-Gaussian, and clustering algorithms easily recover three extremely stable regimes, corresponding to the jet latitude regimes. Further analysis supports the existence of two additional regimes, corresponding to a tilted and split jet. This framework therefore naturally unifies the two regime perspectives.

Abstract:

©2019. The Authors. Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved subgrid-scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of stochastic physics has also been found to be beneficial for the model's long-term climate. In this paper, we demonstrate for the first time that the inclusion of a stochastic physics scheme can notably affect a model's projection of global warming, as well as its historical climatological global temperature. Specifically, we find that when including the “stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies” (SPPT) scheme in the fully coupled climate model EC-Earth v3.1, the predicted level of global warming between 1850 and 2100 is reduced by 10% under an RCP8.5 forcing scenario. We link this reduction in climate sensitivity to a change in the cloud feedbacks with SPPT. In particular, the scheme appears to reduce the positive low cloud cover feedback and increase the negative cloud optical feedback. A key role is played by a robust, rapid increase in cloud liquid water with SPPT, which we speculate is due to the scheme's nonlinear interaction with condensation.

Abstract:

Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of stochastic physics has also been found to be beneficial for the model's long term climate. In this paper, we demonstrate for the first time that the inclusion of a stochastic physics scheme can notably affect a model's projection of global warming, as well as its historical climatological global temperature. Specifically, we find that when including the 'stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendencies' scheme (SPPT) in the fully coupled climate model EC-Earth v3.1, the predicted level of global warming between 1850 and 2100 is reduced by 10% under an RCP8.5 forcing scenario. We link this reduction in climate sensitivity to a change in the cloud feedbacks with SPPT. In particular, the scheme appears to reduce the positive low cloud cover feedback, and increase the negative cloud optical feedback. A key role is played by a robust, rapid increase in cloud liquid water with SPPT, which we speculate is due to the scheme's non-linear interaction with condensation.