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Selected publications
- Weisheimer, A., L. Baker, J. Bröcker, C. Garfinkel, S. Hardiman, D. Hodson, T. Palmer, J. Robson, A. Scaife, J. Screen, T. Shepherd, D. Smith and R. Sutton (2024). The Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Climate Forecasts: Revisiting Our Understanding and Identifying Future Priorities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., E651-659, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0019.1.
- Leach, N., C. Roberts,M. Aengenheyster, D. Heathcote, D. Mitchell, V. Thompson, T. Palmer, A. Weisheimer, and M.R. Allen (2024). Reliable heatwave attribution based on successful operational weather forecasts. Nature Commun., in press.
- Ermis, S., N. Leach, F. Lott, S. Sparrow and A. Weisheimer (2024). Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts. Environmental Research: Climate, doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad4200
- O'Reilly, C.H., L. Brunner, S. Qasmi, R. Nogherotto, A. Ballinger, B. Booth, D. Befort, R. Knuti, A. Schurer, A. Ribes, A. Weisheimer, E. Coppola and C. McSweeney (2024). Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 7, 95, doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00648-8.
- Falkena, S.K.J., J. de Wiljes, Weisheimer, A., and T.G. Shepherd (2023). A Bayesian approach to atmospheric circulation regime assignment. J. Climate, 36, 8619-8636.
- Broecker, J., A.J. Charlton-Perez and Weisheimer, A. (2023). A statistical perspective on the signal-to-noise paradox. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 149, 911-923.
- Doane-Solomon, R., D.J. Befort, J. Camp, K. Hodges and Weisheimer, A. (2023). The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts. Atm. Sci. Lett., e1190
- Sharmila, S., H. Hendon, O. Alves, Weisheimer, A. and M. Balmaseda (2022). Contrasting El Nino and La Nina forecast skill in SEAS5-20C 2-year reforecasts 1901-2010. J. Climate, 36, 1269-1285.
- Domeisen, D.I.V., E.A.B. Eltahir, E.M Fischer, R. Knutti, S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, C. Schaer, S.I. Seneviratne, Weisheimer, A. and H. Wernli (2023). Prediction and projection of heatwaves. Nature Rev Earth Environ, 4, 36-50,
- Weisheimer, A., M. Balmaseda, T. Stockdale, M. Mayer, S. Sharmila, H. Hendon and O. Alves (2022). Variability of ENSO forecast skill in 2-year global reforecasts over the 20th Century. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/GL2022097885. See also Eos Editors' Highlights
- Patterson, M., Weisheimer, A., D. Befort and C. O'Reilly (2022). The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperature. Env. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac9243
- Befort, D.J., L. Brunner, L.F. Borchert, C.H. O'Reilly and Weisheimer, A. (2022). Temporal combination of decadal predictions and climate projections: challenges and potential solutions. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/GL2022098568
- Leach, N., A. Weisheimer, M.R. Allen, and T.N. Palmer (2021). Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. PNAS, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2112087118
- Weisheimer, A., M. Balmaseda, T. Stockdale, M. Mayer, E. de Boisseson, R. Senan and S. Johnson (2021). Retrospective two-year ENSO predictions during the 20th century. ECMWF Newsletter, 169, doi:10.21957/fzf9-te33
- O'Reilly, C.H., D.J., Befort, A. Weisheimer, T. Woollings, A. Ballinger and G. Hegerl (2021). Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty. Commun Earth Environ, doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7
- Befort, D.J., K.I. Hodges, and A. Weisheimer (2021). Seasonal Predictions of Tropical Cyclones over the North Atlantic and the Western North Pacific. J. Clim., https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0041.1
- Sparrow, S., A. Bowery, G.D. Carver, M.O. Koehler, P. Ollinaho, F. Pappenberger, D. Wallom and A. Weisheimer (2021). OpenIFS@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting. Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3473-3486, doi:10.5194/gmd-14-3473-2021
- Weisheimer, D. Befort, D. MacLeod, T.N. Palmer, C. O'Reilly and K. Strommen (2020). Seasonal forecasts of the 20th Century, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101(8): E1413-E1426, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0019.1
- Befort, D.J., C.H. O'Reilly and A. Weisheimer (2020). Constraining projections using decadal predictions, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2020GL087900
- O'Reilly, C.H., D.J. Befort, and A. Weisheimer (2020). Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data. Earth Syst. Dynam., doi:10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020
- O'Reilly, C., A. Weisheimer, D. MacLeod, D. Befort and T.N. Palmer (2020). Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.3890
- Dorrington, J., I. Finney, T.N. Palmer, and Weisheimer, A. (2020). Beyond skill scores: exploring sub-seasonal forecast value through a case study of French month-ahead energy prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.3863
- Leach, N., S. Li, S. Sparrow, G.J. van Oldenborgh, F.C. Lott, A. Weisheimer, and M.R. Allen (2020). Anthropogenic influence on the 2018 summer warm spell in Europe: The impact of different spatio-temporal scales, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0201.1
- Weisheimer, A., D. Decremer, D. MacLeod, C. O'Reilly, T.N. Stockdale, S. Johnson and T.N. Palmer (2018): How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation? Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.3446.
- Palmer, T.N. and A. Weisheimer (2018): A simple pedagogical model linking initial-value reliability with trustworthiness in the forced climate response. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0240.1
- Weisheimer, A., N. Schaller, C. O'Reilly, D. MacLeod and T. Palmer (2017): Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the 20th Century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. doi:10.1002/qj.2976.
- MacLeod, D.A., H.L. Cloke, F Pappenberger and A. Weisheimer (2015): Improved seasonal predictions of the hot summer 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.
- Shi, W., N. Schaller, D. MacLeod, T.N. Palmer and A. Weisheimer (2015): Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett..
- Weisheimer, A. and T.N. Palmer (J.R.S. Interface, 2014): On the reliability of seasonal forecasts. Open access. Also available as ECMWF Tech Memo 722. See also Can predictions of ‘barbecue summer’ ever be reliable? in The Conversation
- Weisheimer, S. Corti, T.N. Palmer and F. Vitart (Phil. Trans. A, 2014). Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parameterisations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. Open access. Also available as ECMWF Tech Memo 720.
- Corti et al. (GRL 2012): Reliability of decadal predictions
- Weisheimer et al. (GRL 2011): Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles. Open access.
- Weisheimer et al. (GRL 2011): On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe. Open access.
- Palmer & Weisheimer (GAFD 2011): Diagnosing the causes of bias in climate models - why is it so hard?
- Palmer et al. (ECMWF Tech Memo 2009): Stochastic Parametrization and Model Uncertainty. Open access.
