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Dr Antje Weisheimer (she)

Principal NCAS Research Fellow

Research theme

  • Climate physics

Sub department

  • Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics

Research groups

  • Predictability of weather and climate
Antje.Weisheimer@physics.ox.ac.uk
Telephone: 01865 (2)82441
Robert Hooke Building, room S37
ECMWF
NCAS
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Warming Stripes for Oxford from 1814-2019

Warming Stripes for Oxford from 1814-2019.

CO 2 -induced climate change assessment for the extreme 2022 Pakistan rainfall using seasonal forecasts

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Nature Research 8:1 (2025) 262

Authors:

Antje Weisheimer, Tim N Palmer, Nicholas J Leach, Myles R Allen, Christopher D Roberts, Muhammad Adnan Abid

Abstract:

While it is widely believed that the intense rainfall in summer 2022 over Pakistan was substantially exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change1, 2, climate models struggled to confirm this3, 4. Using a high-resolution operational seasonal forecasting system that successfully predicted the extreme wet conditions, we perform counterfactual experiments simulating pre-industrial and future conditions. Both experiments also exhibit strong anomalous rainfall, indicating a limited role of CO2-induced forcing. We attribute 10% of the total rainfall to historical increases in CO2 and ocean temperature. However, further increases in the future suggest a weak mean precipitation reduction but with increased variability. By decomposing rainfall and large-scale circulation into CO2 and SST-related signals, we illustrate a tendency for these signals to compensate each other in future scenarios. This suggests that historical CO2 impacts may not reliably predict future responses. Accurately capturing local dynamics is therefore essential for regional climate adaptation planning and for informing loss and damage discussions.
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A comparison of storyline attribution methods for a midlatitude cyclone

Copernicus Publications (2025)

Authors:

Shirin Ermis, Vikki Thompson, Nicholas Leach, Hylke de Vries, Geert Lenderink, Lynn Zhou, Pandora Hope, Ben Clarke, Sarah Kew, Sarah Sparrow, Fraser Lott, Antje Weisheimer
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Investigating the sensitivity of 20th century seasonal hindcasts to tropospheric aerosol forcing

Copernicus Publications (2025)

Authors:

Matthew Wright, Antje Weisheimer, Tim Woollings, Retish Senan, Timothy Stockdale
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Seamless Climate Information for climate extremes through merging of forecasts across seasonal to multi-annual timescales

Copernicus Publications (2025)

Authors:

Muhammad Adnan Abid, Beena Balan Sarojini, Antje Weisheimer
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Verification of weather variables linked to Dengue incidence inthe sub‐seasonal scale in Vietnam

Copernicus Publications (2025)

Authors:

Iago Perez, Sarah Sparrow, Antje Weisheimer, Matthew Wright, Lucy Main
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