The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future
Environmental Research Letters 6:3 (2011)
Abstract:
Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low (Lockwood et al 2010 Environ.Res.Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303-29) and records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys.Res.Lett. 35 L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937-44) suggest that the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England, we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, relative to the hemispheric mean temperature, if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill may be obtained by including the solar effect. © 2011 IOP Publishing Ltd.Atmospheric blocking and mean biases in climate models
Journal of Climate 23:23 (2010) 6143-6152
Abstract:
Models often underestimate blocking in the Atlantic and Pacific basins and this can lead to errors in both weather and climate predictions. Horizontal resolution is often cited as the main culprit for blocking errors due to poorly resolved small-scale variability, the upscale effects of which help to maintain blocks. Although these processes are important for blocking, the authors show that much of the blocking error diagnosed using common methods of analysis and current climate models is directly attributable to the climatological bias of the model. This explains a large proportion of diagnosed blocking error in models used in the recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change report. Furthermore, greatly improved statistics are obtained by diagnosing blocking using climate model data corrected to account for mean model biases. To the extent that mean biases may be corrected in low-resolution models, this suggests that such models may be able to generate greatly improved levels of atmospheric blocking. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.Winds of change?
Planet Earth (2010) 18-19
Abstract:
Tim Woollings discusses the reasons behind the natural events such as the cold European winter of 2009-10, heatwave in Russia, and devastating floods in Pakistan. The jet streams are literally jets of fast-moving air that are strongest about 10km up in the atmosphere - around the level where airliners fly. Jet streams vary in strength from week to week. One of the most common variations in the North Atlantic jet stream is for the whole jet to shift to the north or the south. While the North Atlantic jet stream generally points roughly due east, straight across the Atlantic, it often meanders north and south. When waves on the ocean surface become too large they overturn and break, resulting in very turbulent motion. When Rossby waves break, the resulting weather situation is known as blocking.Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate
Geophysical Research Letters 37:20 (2010)
Abstract:
We demonstrate that open solar flux (FDynamical influences on European climate: an uncertain future.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 368:1924 (2010) 3733-3756