Tim Woollings

Abstract:

In this article, Northern Hemisphere winter midlatitude blocking is analysed through its wave-breaking characteristics. Rossby wave breaking is identified as a key process in blocking occurrence, as it provides the mechanism for the meridional reversal pattern typical of blocking. Two indices are designed to detect the major properties of wave breaking, i.e. the orientation (cyclonic/anticyclonic-direction of breaking or DB index) and the relative contribution of air masses (warm/cold-relative intensity or RI index). The use of the DB index differentiates between the anticyclonic cases over Europe and Asia and the cyclonic events over the oceanic basins. One of the three regions displaying cyclonic type was found over the Atlantic Ocean, the other two being over the Pacific Ocean. The first of these is located over the western side of the Pacific and is dominated by warm air extrusions, whereas the second is placed northward of the exit region of the jet stream, where the meridional θ gradient is much weaker. Two European blocking types have been detected using the RI index, which separates out the cases dominated by warm and cold air masses. The latter cases in particular exhibited a well-structured dipole, with associated strong anomalies in both temperature and precipitation. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.

Abstract:

There is urgent need for a consistent blocking identification method that can be used and compared across reanalyses, models and climate scenarios. We present such a method and diagnose daily blocking frequency in 43 years (1958-2000) of ERA-40 Reanalysis for indices defined on both the commonly used geopotential height and potential temperature fields as well as a zonal wind index. Applications of various blocking indices to the same data highlights the importance of a consistent methodology for comparison and a method that identifies blocks along a path that varies with the latitude of the storm track. Since the method accommodates blocking detection using 500 mb zonal-wind which is readily available in climate model output, we diagnose blocking in 14 CMIP3 models under two different greenhouse gas scenarios. Blocking duration remains nearly constant among the scenarios, but a robust reduction in blocking frequency with global warming is demonstrated. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Abstract:

A poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks in response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing has been diagnosed in climate model simulations. Explanations of this effect have focused on atmospheric dynamics. However, in contrast to storm tracks in other regions, the North Atlantic storm track responds by strengthening and extending farther east, in particular on its southern flank. These adjustments are associated with an intensification and extension of the eddy-driven jet towards western Europe and are expected to have considerable societal impacts related to a rise in storminess in Europe. Here, we apply a regression analysis to an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations to show that the coupling between ocean and atmosphere shapes the distinct storm-track response to greenhouse-gas forcing in the North Atlantic region. In the ensemble of simulations we analyse, at least half of the differences between the storm-track responses of different models are associated with uncertainties in ocean circulation changes. We compare the fully coupled simulations with both the associated slab model simulations and an ocean-forced experiment with one climate model to establish causality. We conclude that uncertainties in the response of the North Atlantic storm track to anthropogenic emissions could be reduced through tighter constraints on the future ocean circulation. © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Abstract:

Preferred jet stream positions and their link to regional circulation patterns over the winter North Atlantic/European sector are investigated to corroborate findings of multimodal behaviour of the jet positions and to analyse patterns of preferred paths and transition probabilities between jet regimes using ERA-40 data. Besides the multivariate Gaussian mixture model, hierarchical clustering and data image techniques are used for this purpose. The different approaches all yield circulation patterns that correspond to the preferred jet regimes, namely the southern, central and the northern positions associated respectively with the Greenland anticyclone or blocking, and two opposite phases of an East Atlantic-like flow pattern. Growth and decay patterns as well as preferred paths of the system trajectory are studied using the mixture model within the delay space. The analysis shows that the most preferred paths are associated with central to north and north to south jet stream transitions with a typical time-scale of about 5 days, and with life cycles of 1-2 weeks. The transition paths are found to be consistent with transition probabilities. The analysis also shows that wave breaking seems to be the dominant mechanism behind Greenland blocking. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.

Abstract:

Geopotential height fields exhibit a well-known pattern of skewness, with distributions that are positively skewed on the poleward side of themidlatitude jets/storm tracks and negatively skewed on the equatorward side. This pattern has often been interpreted as a signature of nonlinear dynamical features, such as blocking highs and cutoff lows, and there is renewed interest in the higher moments of flow variables as indicators of the nature of the underlying dynamics. However, this paper suggests that skewness can arise as a simple kinematic consequence of the presence of jet streams and so may not be a reliable indicator of nonlinear dynamical behavior. In support of this, reanalysis data are analyzed to demonstrate a close link between the jet streams and the skewness patterns. Further evidence is provided by a simple stochastic kinematic model of a jet stream as a Gaussian wind profile. The parameters of this model are fitted to data from the reanalysis and also from an aquaplanet general circulation model. The skewness of the model's geopotential height and zonal wind fields are then compared to those of the original data. This shows that a fluctuating jet stream can produce patterns of skewness that are qualitatively similar to those observed, although the magnitude of the skewness is significantly overestimated by the kinematic model. These results suggest that this simple kinematic effect does contribute to the observed patterns of skewness but that other processes (such as nonlinear dynamics) likely also play a role. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.