Climate dynamics

Abstract:

rcp45 is an experiment of the CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/). CMIP5 is meant to provide a framework for coordinated climate change experiments for the next five years and thus includes simulations for assessment in the AR5 as well as others that extend beyond the AR5.

4.1 rcp45 (4.1 RCP4.5): Future projection (2006-2100) forced by RCP4.5. RCP4.5 is a representative concentration pathway which approximately results in a radiative forcing of 4.5 W m-2 at year 2100, relative to pre-industrial conditions. RCPs are time-dependent, consistent projections of emissions and concentrations of radiatively active gases and particles.

Experiment design is described in detail in http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/docs/Taylor_CMIP5_design.pdf and the list of output variables and their temporal resolutions are given in http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/docs/standard_output.pdf .
The output is stored in netCDF format as time series per variable in model grid spatial resolution. For more information on the Earth System model and the simulation please refer to the CIM repository.

Abstract:

Project: IPCC Assessment Report 5 and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets - These data belong to two projects:1) to the Assessment Report No 5 of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) and2) to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project No 5 (CMIP5).CMIP5 is executed by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) on behalf of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Most of the data is replicated between the three data nodes at the World Data Centre for Climate (WDCC), the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC), and the PCMDI.The project embraces the simulations with about 30 climate models of about 20 institutes worldwide.

Abstract:

The two-way relationship between Rossby wave-breaking (RWB) and intensification of extratropical cyclones is analysed over the Euro-Atlantic sector. In particular, the timing, intensity and location of cyclone development are related to RWB occurrences. For this purpose, two indices based on potential temperature are used to detect and classify anticyclonic and cyclonic RWB episodes from ERA-40 reanalysis data. Results show that explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic (NA) is fostered by enhanced occurrence of RWB on days prior to the cyclone's maximum intensification. Under such conditions, the eddy-driven jet stream is accelerated over the NA, thus enhancing conditions for cyclogenesis. For explosive cyclogenesis over the eastern NA, enhanced cyclonic RWB over eastern Greenland and anticyclonic RWB over the subtropical NA are observed. Typically only one of these is present in any given case, with the RWB over eastern Greenland being more frequent than its southern counterpart. This leads to an intensification of the jet over the eastern NA and enhanced probability of windstorms reaching western Europe. Explosive cyclones evolving under simultaneous RWB on both sides of the jet feature a higher mean intensity and deepening rates than cyclones preceded by a single RWB event. Explosive developments over the western NA are typically linked to a single area of enhanced cyclonic RWB over western Greenland. Here, the eddy-driven jet is accelerated over the western NA. Enhanced occurrence of cyclonic RWB over southern Greenland and anticyclonic RWB over Europe is also observed after explosive cyclogenesis, potentially leading to the onset of Scandinavian blocking. However, only very intense developments have a considerable influence on the large-scale atmospheric flow. Non-explosive cyclones depict no sign of enhanced RWB over the whole NA area. We conclude that the links between RWB and cyclogenesis over the Euro-Atlantic sector are sensitive to the cyclone's maximum intensity, deepening rate and location. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.

Abstract:

Long records of the latitude and speed of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream since 1871 are presented from the newly available Twentieth Century Reanalysis. These jet variations underlie the variability associated with patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and have considerable societal impact through variations in the prevailing westerly winds. While the NAO combines variations in the latitude and speed of the jet, these two characteristics are shown to have quite different seasonal cycles and interannual variability, suggesting that they may have different dynamical influences. In general, the features exhibited in shorter records are shown to be robust, for example the strong skewness of the NAO distribution. Related to this is a clear multimodality of the jet latitude distribution, which suggests the existence of preferred positions of the jet. Decadal variations in jet latitude are shown to correspond to changes in the occurrence of these preferred positions. However, it is the speed rather than the latitude of the jet that exhibits the strongest decadal variability, and in most seasons this is clearly distinct from a white-noise representation of the seasonal means. When viewed in this longer term context, the variations of recent decades do not appear unusual and recent values of jet latitude and speed are not unprecedented in the historical record. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society.