Constraining uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing

Wiley

Authors:

Duncan Watson-Parris, Nicolas Bellouin, Lucia Deaconu, Nick AJ Schutgens, Masaru Yoshioka, Leighton Anunda Regayre, Kirsty J Pringle, Jill S Johnson, Ken S Carslaw, Philip Stier

Constraint on precipitation response to climate change by combination of atmospheric energy and water budgets

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Nature Research (part of Springer Nature)

Authors:

Guy Dagan, Philip Stier

Decomposing Effective Radiative Forcing due to Aerosol Cloud Interactions by Global Cloud Regimes

Authors:

Tom Langton, Philip Stier, Duncan Watson-Parris, Jane Patricia Mulcahy

Ensemble daily simulations for elucidating cloud–aerosol interactions under a large spread of realistic environmental conditions

Copernicus GmbH

Authors:

Guy Dagan, Philip Stier

Abstract:

<jats:p>Abstract. Aerosol effects on cloud properties and the atmospheric energy and radiation budgets are studied through ensemble simulations over two month-long periods during the NARVAL campaigns (December 2013 and August 2016). For each day, two simulations are conducted with low and high cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC), representing low and high aerosol concentrations, respectively. This large data-set, which is based on a large spread of co-varying realistic initial conditions, enables robust identification of the effect of CDNC changes on cloud properties. We show that increases in CDNC drive a reduction in the top of atmosphere (TOA) net shortwave flux (more reflection) and a decrease in the lower tropospheric stability for all cases examined, while the TOA longwave flux and the liquid and ice water path changes are generally positive. However, changes in cloud fraction or precipitation, that could appear significant for a given day, are not as robustly affected, and, at least for the summer month, are not statistically distinguishable from zero. These results highlight the need for using large statistics of initial conditions for cloud–aerosol studies for identifying the significance of the response. In addition, we demonstrate the dependence of the aerosol effects on the season, as it is shown that the TOA net radiative effect is doubled during the winter month as compared to the summer month. By separating the simulations into different dominant cloud regimes, we show that the difference between the different months emerge due to the compensation of the longwave effect induced by an increase in ice content as compared to the shortwave effect of the liquid clouds. The CDNC effect on the longwave is stronger in the summer as the clouds are deeper and the atmosphere is more unstable. </jats:p>

In-situ constraints on the vertical distribution of global aerosol

Copernicus GmbH

Authors:

Duncan Watson-Parris, Nick Schutgens, Carly Reddington, Kirsty J Pringle, Dantong Liu, James D Allan, Hugh Coe, Ken S Carslaw, Philip Stier

Abstract:

<jats:p>Abstract. Despite ongoing efforts, the vertical distribution of aerosols globally is poorly understood. This in turn leads to large uncertainties in the contributions of the direct and indirect aerosol forcing on climate. Using the Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP) database – the largest synthesised collection of in-situ aircraft measurements currently available, with more than 1000 flights from 37 campaigns from around the world – we investigate the vertical structure of sub-micron aerosols across a wide range of regions and environments. The application of this unique dataset to assess the vertical distributions of number size distribution and Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) in the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM reveals that the model underestimates accumulation mode particles in the upper troposphere, especially in remote regions. The processes underlying this discrepancy are explored using different aerosol microphysical schemes and a process sensitivity analysis. These show that the biases are predominantly related to aerosol ageing and removal rather than emissions. </jats:p>