Global warming may be behind an increase in the frequency and intensity of cold spells

The Conversation, 2024

Authors:

B. Monge-Sanz

Abstract:

A satellite chronology of plumes from the April 2021 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Copernicus Publications 23:24 (2023) 15209-15234

Authors:

Isabelle A Taylor, Roy G Grainger, Andrew T Prata, Simon R Proud, Tamsin A Mather, David M Pyle

Abstract:

Satellite instruments play a valuable role in detecting, monitoring and characterising emissions of ash and gas into the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions. This study uses two satellite instruments, the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), to examine the plumes of ash and sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the April 2021 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent. The frequent ABI data have been used to construct a 14 d chronology of a series of explosive events at La Soufrière, which is then complemented by measurements of SO2 from IASI, which is able to track the plume as it is transported around the globe. A minimum of 35 eruptive events were identified using true, false and brightness temperature difference maps produced with the ABI data. The high temporal resolution images were used to identify the approximate start and end times, as well as the duration and characteristics of each event. From this analysis, four distinct phases within the 14 d eruption have been defined, each consisting of multiple explosive events with similar characteristics: (1) an initial explosive event, (2) a sustained event lasting over 9 h, (3) a pulsatory phase with 25 explosive events in a 65.3 h period and (4) a waning sequence of explosive events. It is likely that the multiple explosive events during the April 2021 eruption contributed to the highly complex plume structure that can be seen in the IASI measurements of the SO2 column amounts and heights. The bulk of the SO2 from the first three phases of the eruption was transported eastwards, which based on the wind direction at the volcano implies that the SO2 was largely in the upper troposphere. Some of the SO2 was carried to the south and west of the volcano, suggesting a smaller emission of the gas into the stratosphere, there being a shift in wind direction around the height of the tropopause. The retrieved SO2 heights show that the plume had multiple layers but was largely concentrated between 13 and 19 km, with the majority of the SO2 being located in the upper troposphere and around the height of the tropopause, with some emission into the stratosphere. An average e-folding time of 6.07±4.74 d was computed based on the IASI SO2 results: similar to other tropical eruptions of this magnitude and height. The SO2 was trackable for several weeks after the eruption and is shown to have circulated the globe, with parts of it reaching as far as 45∘ S and 45∘ N. Using the IASI SO2 measurements, a time series of the total SO2 mass loading was produced, with this peaking on 13 April (descending orbits) at 0.31±0.09 Tg. Converting these mass values to a temporally varying SO2 flux demonstrated that the greatest emission occurred on 10 April with that measurement incorporating SO2 from the second phase of the eruption (sustained emission) and the beginning of the pulsatory phase. The SO2 flux is then shown to fall during the later stages of the eruption: suggesting a reduction in eruptive energy, something also reflected in ash height estimates obtained with the ABI instrument. A total SO2 emission of 0.63±0.5 Tg of SO2 has been derived, although due to limitations associated with the retrieval, particularly in the first few days after the eruption began, this, the retrieved column amounts and the total SO2 mass on each day should be considered minimum estimates. There are a number of similarities between the 1979 and 2021 eruptions at La Soufrière, with both eruptions consisting of a series of explosive events with varied heights and including some emission into the stratosphere. These similarities highlight the importance of in-depth investigations into eruptions and the valuable contribution of satellite data for this purpose; as these studies aid in learning about a volcano's behaviour, which may allow for better preparation for future eruptive activity.

Climatology of the terms and variables of transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) equations from multiple reanalyses: MERRA-2, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, and CFSR

EGUsphere Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2023

Authors:

Fujiwara, M., Martineau, P., Wright, J. S., Abalos, M., Šácha, P., Kawatani, Y., Davis, S. M., Birner, T., and
Monge-Sanz, B. M.

Abstract:

A 30-year (1980–2010) climatology of the major variables and terms of the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) momentum and thermodynamic equations is constructed by using four global atmospheric reanalyses, MERRA-2, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, and CFSR. Both the reanalysis ensemble mean (REM) and the differences of each reanalysis from the REM are investigated in the latitude-pressure domain for December-January-February and for June-July-August. For the REM investigation, two residual vertical velocities (the original one and one evaluated from residual meridional velocity) and two mass streamfunctions (from meridional and vertical velocities) are compared, and longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) radiative heatings are also shown and discussed. For the TEM equations, the residual terms are also calculated and investigated for their potential usefulness, as the residual term for the momentum equation should include the effects of parameterised processes such gravity waves, while that for the thermodynamic equation should indicate the analysis increment. Inter-reanalysis differences are investigated for the mass streamfunction, LW and SW heatings, the two major terms of the TEM momentum equation (the Coriolis term and the Elliassen-Palm flux divergence term), and the two major terms of the TEM thermodynamic equation (the vertical temperature advection term and the total diabatic heating term). The spread among reanalysis TEM momentum balance terms is around 10 % in Northern-Hemisphere winter and up to 50 % in Southern-Hemisphere winter. The largest uncertainties in the thermodynamic equation (about 50 %) are found in the vertical advection, which does not show a structure consistent with the differences in heatings. The results shown in this paper provide basic information on the degree of agreement among recent reanalyses in the stratosphere and in the upper troposphere in the TEM framework.

Climatology of the terms and variables of transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) equations from multiple reanalyses: MERRA-2, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, and CFSR

Copernicus Publications 2023 (2023) 1-49

Authors:

Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon S Wright, Marta Abalos, Petr Šácha, Yoshio Kawatani, Sean M Davis, Thomas Birner, Beatriz M Monge-Sanz

Geostationary aerosol retrievals of extreme biomass burning plumes during the 2019-20 Australian bushfires

EGUsphere European Geosciences Union (2023)

Authors:

Daniel Jamie Victor Robbins, Caroline Poulsen, Steven Siems, Simon Proud, Andrew Prata, Roy Grainger, Adam Povey

Abstract:

Extreme biomass burning (BB) events, such as those seen during the 2019–20 Australian bushfire season, are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change. Ground-based observations of these events can provide useful information on the macro- and micro-physical properties of the plumes, but these observations are sparse, especially in regions which are at risk of intense bushfire events. Satellite observations of extreme BB events provide a unique perspective, with the newest generation of geostationary imagers, such as the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), observing entire continents at moderate spatial and high temporal resolution. However, current passive satellite retrieval methods struggle to capture the high values of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) seen during these BB events. Accurate retrievals are necessary for global and regional studies of shortwave radiation, air quality modelling and numerical weather prediction. To address these issues, the Optimal Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) algorithm has used AHI data to measure extreme BB plumes from the 2019–20 Australian bushfire season. The sensitivity of the retrieval to the assumed optical properties of BB plumes is explored by comparing retrieved AOT with AERONET L1.5 data over the AERONET site at Tumbarumba, New South Wales, between 1 December 2019 00:00 UTC to 3 January 2020 00:00 UTC. The study shows that for AOT values > 2, the sensitivity to assumed optical properties is substantial. The ORAC retrievals and AERONET data are compared against the JAXA Aerosol Retrieval Product (ARP), MODIS Deep Blue over land, MODIS MAIAC, SLSTR SYN and VIIRS Deep Blue products. The comparison shows the ORAC retrieval significantly improves coverage of optically thick plumes relative to the JAXA ARP, with approximately twice as many pixels retrieved and peak retrieved AOT values 1.4 higher than the JAXA ARP. The ORAC retrievals have accuracy scores between 0.742–0.744 compared to the values of 0.718–0.833 for the polar-orbiting satellite products, despite successfully retrieving approximately 28 times as many pixels over the study period as the most successful polar-orbiting satellite product. The AHI and MODIS satellite products are compared for three case studies covering a range of BB plumes over Australia. The results show good agreement between all products for plumes with AOT values ≤ 2. For extreme BB plumes, the ORAC retrieval finds values of AOT > 15, significantly higher than those seen in events classified as extreme by previous studies although with high uncertainty. A combination of hard limits in the retrieval algorithms and misclassification of BB plumes as cloud prevent the JAXA and MODIS products from returning AOT values significantly greater than 5.