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Consistency tests for comparing astrophysical models and observations

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) 524:1 (2023) 1061-1074

Authors:

Fiorenzo Stoppa, Eric Cator, Gijs Nelemans

Abstract:

ABSTRACT In astronomy, there is an opportunity to enhance the practice of validating models through statistical techniques, specifically to account for measurement error uncertainties. While models are commonly used to describe observations, there are instances where there is a lack of agreement between the two. This can occur when models are derived from incomplete theories, when a better-fitting model is not available or when measurement uncertainties are not correctly considered. However, with the application of specific tests that assess the consistency between observations and astrophysical models in a model-independent way, it is possible to address this issue. The consistency tests (ConTESTs) developed in this paper use a combination of non-parametric methods and distance measures to obtain a test statistic that evaluates the closeness of the astrophysical model to the observations. To draw conclusions on the consistency hypothesis, a simulation-based methodology is performed. In particular, we built two tests for density models and two for regression models to be used depending on the case at hand and the power of the test needed. We used ConTEST to examine synthetic examples in order to determine the effectiveness of the tests and provide guidance on using them while building a model. We also applied ConTEST to various astronomy cases, identifying which models were consistent and, if not, identifying the probable causes of rejection.
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Possible contribution of X-ray binary jets to the Galactic cosmic ray and neutrino flux

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) 524:1 (2023) 1326-1342

Authors:

D Kantzas, S Markoff, AJ Cooper, D Gaggero, M Petropoulou, P De La Torre Luque
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Ultra diffuse galaxies in the Hydra I cluster from the LEWISProject: Phase-Space distribution and globular cluster richness

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters Oxford University Press (OUP) 525:1 (2023) l93-l97

Authors:

Duncan A Forbes, Jonah Gannon, Enrichetta Iodice, Michael Hilker, Goran Doll, Chiara Buttitta, Antonio La Marca, Magda Arnaboldi, Michele Cantiello, G D’Ago, Jesus Falcon Barroso, Laura Greggio, Marco Gullieuszik, Johanna Hartke, Steffen Mieske, Marco Mirabile, Roberto Rampazzo, Marina Rejkuba, Marilena Spavone, Chiara Spiniello, Giulio Capasso
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SN 2023ixf in Messier 101: A Variable Red Supergiant as the Progenitor Candidate to a Type II Supernova

The Astrophysical Journal Letters American Astronomical Society 952:1 (2023) l23

Authors:

Charles D Kilpatrick, Ryan J Foley, Wynn V Jacobson-Galán, Anthony L Piro, Stephen J Smartt, Maria R Drout, Alexander Gagliano, Christa Gall, Jens Hjorth, David O Jones, Kaisey S Mandel, Raffaella Margutti, Enrico Ramirez-Ruiz, Conor L Ransome, V Ashley Villar, David A Coulter, Hua Gao, David Jacob Matthews, Kirsty Taggart, Yossef Zenati
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Calculations of multipole transitions in Sn II for kilonova analysis

The European Physical Journal D Springer Nature 77:7 (2023) 126

Authors:

AI Bondarev, JH Gillanders, C Cheung, MS Safronova, S Fritzsche
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